Africa: Farmland Shortages, Agribusiness Models and 2030s’ Politicization of Population Explosion, Food Shortages and Hunger

Shortage of Fertile Lands in Africa

 

 

By

Boniface Okanga

London, England, 10 September 2026

If Africa is not careful, its politics of the 2030s will be shaped by the politics of food shortages, destitution and hunger as instigated by the gradually dwindling land for agricultural production. Amid the quagmire of the surging politics of population explosion and food security, African economies are unknowingly beginning to experience the problems of farmland shortages. There is a quiet depletion of agricultural production land as rapid population growth fuels urbanization. Urbanization in turn, converts agricultural land into the establishment of different residential, commercial or industrial zones. Without recognition by some of the African states, this is gradually causing the silent depletion of agricultural land. Poor urban planning and restructuring of land uses and optimization approaches are instigating the unnecessary conversion of agricultural land into residential zones. In effect, Africa’s farmland is not limited. However, poor optimization of urban land makes farmland appear limited when it is actually not supposed to be limited. Yet as the African population continues to spiral, it is not questionable that the ratiocination in the Malthusian Theory on population growth in relation to food production will become a reality. It will become a reality causing even more disastrous economic and political effects and quagmire as Africa moves towards the 2030s. Some African economies are aware of this emerging new phenomenon, but are yet to become responsive with the appropriate land reform and new spatial land zoning and development strategies and approaches. Others are completely unaware and are being taken by surprise from the surging spate of land conflicts and the increasing urban crimes of theft induced by hunger and food shortages. Some effects of food shortages, destitution and hunger are already being disguised in some African economies as a fight against “undocumented Africans” in Africa. If Africa cannot document and manage its own citizens and the population, who will do it for them? Some other African economies are aware of this changing phenomenon in the African demographics and their effects on the dwindling farmland, but they are still pretending as if all is fine.

Even if aware, some African economies have opted to do nothing with the assumption that things will reorganize and refix themselves with limited government intervention. Yes, it is true. Sometimes the economy can refix itself. Using System Theory, economies are macro-organisations that are analogous to living organisms. Writing in a Seminal paper titled “The Social Psychology of Organizations”, Katz and Kahn’s (1966) interpolation of Ludwig von Bertalanffy’s (1950) biologically based system thinking into organisational context insinuates that as living organisms, economies are self-regenerating and replenishing. Even with or without government intervention, economies as macro-organisations, can in certain cases, reorganise, restructure, replenish, refix and re-generate themselves into new forms to adapt and evolve with the emerging new economic, social and political dynamics. Even if that is so, sometimes, over-reliance on systems approach to get things to fix themselves can take long and even the undesired direction. In the context of land use management changes, that implies that the planned, and not emergent approach as articulated in Mintzberg and Waters’ (1978) paper titled “Of Strategies, Deliberate and Emergent”, can aid the introduction of a guided transformation of the agricultural production systems. A well-guided transformation of the adopted agribusiness models and agricultural practices is essential for improving the optimization of the increasingly limited farmland of Africa.

Some African countries have not yet started feeling the pinch of the growing challenges of farmland shortages. However, most African countries are increasingly realizing that land for different agricultural production activities is becoming increasingly limited. Reasons are attributable to the surging population in some African countries that drive demand increases for housing and different commercial establishments, but not food production. Because food can always be imported from even another African country that has excesses (African Development Bank Group, 2026). When Zimbabwe ran out of food because of the poorly managed land reform programmes that instigated declining food production, it relied on South Africa that had and still has excess food production. When Zimbabweans took over white farms and instead of farming joined the same whites in South Africa, it was the well-structured white-based food production in South Africa and not the abandoned vigilante farms in Zimbabwe that saved Zimbabweans from food crisis and hunger.

In East Africa, DRC, Kenya and Uganda rely on the imported Tanzanian rice to offset the domestic shortfalls (Kitunzi, 2026), as South Sudan in turn, relies on Uganda for most of its major food imports. As the effects of the surging population growth become a reality in most African countries, the increasing land shortages in most African countries are also instigated by the increasing land degradation practices causing desertification (African Development Bank Group, 2026). In turn, these affect the quality of arable land to limit the farmland that Africa has at its disposal. Most of the farmers are using unsustainable agricultural practices like overgrazing, poor soil management and land overuse. Besides absentee landlords holding several square miles of unused farmland, others have huge chunks of unused arable land held under certain customary land tenures and laws that prevent occupation and usage by even the surrounding communities. Combined with the devastating effects of climate change that cause the prolonged flooding of most arable land or drought, all these are increasingly causing farmland land shortages in Africa. Most of the affected African countries are Sudan, Ghana, Burkina Faso, Ethiopia, Kenya, Sierra Leone, Liberia, Rwanda, Chad, Niger and Mauritania (African Development Bank Group, 2026; The Conversation, 2024; Zamchiya & Rusere, 2026). However, the entire Africa still needs to review the existing agricultural production approaches as part of the essential proactive strategies for improving the optimisation of the increasingly limited African farmland. Given these land shortages challenges, transforming Africa’s agribusiness models or even the introduction of newer agribusiness models used in Africa is essential for reshaping Africa’s agricultural production system in the way that catalyses economic growth and development.

Transformed agricultural production will improve the scale of agricultural productivity. In turn, this will improve household incomes, while also boosting employment creation at the primary and tertiary levels. At the primary level, agricultural production deals with the most difficult areas that most Gen Zs that prefer mainly TikToking, may not necessarily like. It deals with the clearing of bushes and preparation of farmland for the purposes of planting crops or doing livestock rearing, poultry, fish and aquaculture farming or forestry. This is the basic level of agricultural production that stimulates the overall productivity of the agroprocessing sector. It is this level that the Gen Zs hate most. It is this difficult stage of primary agricultural activity of clearing bushes, ploughing and weeding in rain and burning sunshine that made the vigilantes who had taken over white farms in Zimbabwe realize that farming is not the business for everyone. Hence, instead of farming, the Zimbabwean vigilantes also joined the expelled white farmers in England, Perth in Australia and Canada to do the soft aspects of food production as waiters and waitresses at McDonald’s, KFC, Domino’s Pizza etc.

But as they migrated, the increasing global population growth is also exerting a lot of pressure in Europe. The effect is that just like in Africa, the politicization of population growth and immigration has also become a common phenomenon for even the political parties that do not have any sound alternative economic policies to offer. In Germany, while riding on the political rhetoric of doing mass deportation of the century, AfD (Alternative für Deutschland)- the far-right German political party has won the 2026 Saxony-Anhalt State election for the first time since the end of Hitler’s era. AfD seeks to use this victory to reposition itself to do well or even take over after the Federal German elections in 2029. This insinuates how the politicization of the dynamics of population explosion and food security has become quite instrumental for making even voters forget some of the previously unforgettable ugly past incidents. In the UK, the anti-immigrants’ debates are also gaining momentum.

Nonetheless, if well-managed, primary agricultural production requires specialized knowledge and commitment, not telephone farming. It is the most difficult of all, and the events in Zimbabwe imply if it is disrupted, the resulting poor production can affect the entire economy for a long time. Primary agricultural production is the major catalyst of the country’s agricultural productivity. Increased productivity at the primary level of agricultural production boosts the productivity of the secondary agricultural production. This catalyses economic productivity, growth, development and even sustainability. Agricultural transformation initiatives discern how farmers can be re-organized in the context of the restructured agricultural systems to contribute more meaningfully to economic growth and development.

Even the evolution and advancement of some advanced economies like the United States was influenced by the successful implementation of its periodic agricultural restructuring and transformational programmes. This created the agricultural economy foundation that propelled agriculture as one of the major economic backbones of the United States. Realizing the values of supporting smallholder farmers in the 20th Century, the US government encouraged the formation and support of smallholder farmers’ agricultural cooperatives. Following years of support, most smallholder farmers were able to transition from small-scale agricultural production into one of the major players in the United States’ agricultural production industry. Some even evolved into the major global players in the agricultural production of today. From these improved agricultural production, major agroprocessing industries emerged to further catalyse the growth of the United States’ economy. Even when some of the private energy suppliers refused to supply electricity to most rural farms in the 1930s due to low profitability, it was now the group of the empowered farmers that formed the Rural Electric Cooperatives that mobilized funds for rural farms’ electrification. Rural Electric Cooperatives became creditworthy to take federal loans that it used for financing different initiatives for rural farms’ electrification. This translated into stable energy supplies that not only boosted rural farm production, but also the electrification and transformation of rural economies.

Just like Rural Electric Cooperatives, Land O’Lakes which was created by dairy farmers also unified dairy farmers to demand better prices. This improved the profitability and attractiveness of the US dairy market to inspire the faster growth and development of the US dairy production. The end results were improved contribution of the dairy production to the United States’ GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Because of the saturated grain market in the US in the 1930s, CHS Inc was created as a cooperative to aid farmers in distributing bushels of grains across the globe. This generated foreign exchange earnings that went to directly empower the rural US grain farmers. US’ success as one of the advanced global economies that evolved from improved agricultural production suggests the more the multitudes of people are involved in this basic level of agricultural production, the better for the economy. It instigates the growth and success of the agroprocessing industries. However, despite the maturity of the US agricultural economy and Donald Trump’s recent introduction of a $12 Billion package for the US farmers, it seems intensified crack down and deportation of undocumented immigrants is offsetting what would have been the overall positive rippling effects of the $12 Billion package. Increased crack down on undocumented farm workers has created fear and the reduction of farm labour. In turn, these have caused increasing food prices as well as the declining price competitiveness of most US agricultural products in the international market. Combined with the retaliatory tariffs from China against Trump’s tariff hikes, the devastating effects of all these have not been quite good for the US farmers across all sectors like dairy and grain farming.

 

Empirical facts from the US implies if the support of the primary agricultural production system is effective, it is often the excesses produced at the primary level that boost the agroprocessing business as well as improved export earnings. In the long run, the emerging multitudes of new agroprocessing industries create the foundation for wider industrialization as the new major stimulant of economic growth. While the primary level of agricultural production deals with the essential basic agricultural production activities that support the wider agribusiness activities of the economy, the tertiary level of agricultural production deals with the transformation of different agricultural inputs into finished products. Tertiary level of agricultural production is also regarded as the secondary agricultural production that deals with the conversion of different agricultural inputs into the finished products. It deals with value-addition.

Despite the challenges at the basic primary level of agricultural production, it is this tertiary level of agricultural production that Africa is grappling with how to improve earnings and the other economic values generated from agricultural production. It is at the tertiary level of agricultural production that most of the agribusinesses prefer to get engaged. However, engagement in the secondary level of agricultural production often requires more sophisticated skills, talents and technology. It also requires higher capital finance which most of the African entrepreneurs often do not have. Productivity of the primary level of agricultural production catalyses the productivity of the secondary level of agricultural production. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. However, if the secondary sector of the agricultural production is poorly developed, it often still becomes difficult to boost the productivity of the primary sector of agricultural production.

Agriculture as a Catalyst for Industrialization

There is a significant positive co-relationship between primary and secondary stages of agricultural production. It is the secondary agricultural production segment that creates a market for the players in different primary agricultural production segment. If the secondary sector is poorly developed, it also affects the development, evolution and advancement of the skills, technology and methodology used at the primary agricultural production segment. The profitability of the secondary agricultural production sector attracts more advanced capital and more sophisticated players into the agricultural production at the primary level. Efforts of developing and improving agricultural productivity at the primary level must therefore be integrated as well with the quest for improving the productivity of the secondary agricultural production system. Capabilities of the secondary agricultural production system must be improved not just for the sake of improving value-addition and export earnings, but also for the purpose of improving the attractiveness of the secondary agricultural system that acts as the market and catalyst of primary agricultural production’s productivity. These signify the adopted agribusiness model changes and transforms how agricultural activities are accomplished to influence the attainment of the desired socio-economic outcomes. When Brazil wanted to transform from an agricultural economy into an industrialized agricultural economy worth $204 Billion, it introduced large-scale corporate farming aimed at improving exports. It also introduced the global agricultural supply chain production. After investing heavily in research, Brazil introduced the high-tech Embrapa system that converted Cerrado region into the most fertile land. It also increased the investment for the production of export-driven agricultural products like soybeans and meat. The end result was that agriculture emerged as the 27% contributor to Brazil’s GDP, while also improving its state of balance of payment.

Just like Brazil, Vietnam also did a similar thing to transition from an agricultural economy to an industrial economy disrupting most of the world’s markets. After the Vietnam War ended on 30 April, 1975, the Vietnamese government had only agriculture as the major source of revenue. Because of war, agricultural production had been significantly disrupted. Given limited foreign funding and support, the Vietnam government realized that to survive, it had to transform and convert agricultural production into the most viable and sustainable revenue-generating ventures. Vietnam restructured its agricultural production system by introducing what is called the Post-Doi-Moi reforms. Post-Doi-Moi Reforms introduced the concept of collective farming in which the cooperatives were created to integrate all the smallholder farmers. Using this integrated approach, millions of small-scale farmers were integrated into regional agricultural production frameworks that specialized in producing coffee, rice and different aquaculture products. Because of training and direct support and guidance from the Vietnam government, agriculture emerged as the major transformer of Vietnamese economy. It turned into a major catalyst of today’s thriving Vietnamese economy.

Agriculture employed millions of people at the primary and secondary levels of production. It also turned into Vietnam’s major revenue-generator and GDP contributor. Internationally, Vietnam emerged as the major exporter of rice and robusta coffee to rival with the likes of Brazil, Argentina and Ethiopia. Investment in the required agroprocessing industries boosts economic productivity to spur increased export earnings. It also mitigates food security risks. In Africa, the surging African population signifies the transformation of the agribusiness models used in Africa is not only essential for responding to the increasing unemployment challenges among young people. Instead, improved agricultural production is also essential for increasing food supplies. Increased food supplies drive down prices. This improves food accessibility and affordability to most of the African population. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger.

Increased food accessibility reduces exposure to hunger as well as mortality derived from hunger. This mitigates risks of political and economic instability instigated by the growing population of hungry people that cannot afford daily meals. Improved agricultural production is the catalyst of economic growth. The adopted agribusiness model is the transformer of agricultural productivity that in turn spurs economic productivity, development, growth and even sustainability. Such a view accentuates empirical facts from even the modern advanced industrialized economies like the United States, Denmark and Netherlands that imply the adopted agricultural production model influences or even constraints agricultural productivity.

 

If wrong agricultural production models are used, it may affect agricultural productivity and its contribution to economic growth and development. In contrast, if well nurtured, the adopted agribusiness models can boost economic growth, while also contributing enormously to the country’s GDP (Gross Domestic Product). Insights from the World Bank and Africa Agricultural Transformation Initiative suggest that most of the modern advanced industrialized economies evolved from radical agricultural change and transformation during the early years. Radical agricultural production change and transformation spurred the change and transformation of agricultural production from a subsistence approach to the more sophisticated commercial agricultural systems. Inspired by innovation that invented how different agricultural products could be transformed and consumed in different ways, this catalysed the growth and development of most of the modern advanced economies of the world. Initially, the Netherlands was not concerned with stimulating its economic growth, but instead with how its limited agricultural land could be optimized to produce maximum output. This led to the invention of more advanced agricultural production methods and technology. It influenced the introduction of High-Tech Ecosystem Agribusiness Models that encouraged stronger collaboration between the agricultural production firms, government and universities. This aided the advancement of agricultural research and production that introduced more advanced agricultural production technologies, efficient methods and other novel agricultural production models like automated glasshouses and vertical indoor farming.

Despite the limited agricultural land, the introduction of these more efficient agricultural production methods improved food supplies and security. In that process, the Netherlands also found itself emerging as the World’s second largest exporter of agricultural products like dairy, meat and flowers. With $170 Billion, the United States takes the first place as the largest exporter of agricultural products like meat, soybeans, wheat and corn. Brazil takes the third place as the leading exporter of agricultural products like chicken, sugar, coffee, meat and soybeans. China takes the fourth position as the largest exporter of agricultural products like fruits, vegetables and processed aquatic products. These imply the adopted incremental actions and improvement advance agricultural production method to solve food security issues, while also transforming the economy to increase export earnings.

In China, its success as the most industrialized economy is not only owed to tech-innovation fuelling its industrialization, but also the restructuring of its agricultural production system. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. During the early years, China first introduced the economic and housing policies encouraging rural-urban migration. Realizing that it could not be able to feed all its extensive population if land was not properly utilized, this policy created vacant land as the new immigrants from rural areas were encouraged to take up employment in different industries in urban areas. For the farmers remaining in the rural areas, China introduced the decentralized model for agricultural production. The decentralized model recognized that since individual farmers prefer to operate independently, the encouragement of individual operations would motivate farmers to do the best to deliver the desired agricultural production outcomes. Usage of this decentralized model was integrated with the increased investment in R&D (Research & Development) for hybrid seeds and localized agritech that transformed rice and fish farming for the better. A few years later, it did not take long before the success of radical Chinese agricultural reforms was manifested in China’s emergence as the biggest agricultural economy. China generates about $1.9 trillion, which is about 36% of the world’s agricultural output from agricultural production.

Just like in China, in Morocco, efforts of improving agricultural productivity were not any different. Taking its unique advantage as one of the biggest global producers of fertilizers, Morocco partnered with OCP Africa (Office Cherifien des Phosphates Africa) to support and drive the success of small-scale farmers to improve agricultural production in Morocco. Morocco introduced the Farmer-Centered Model that provided agricultural inputs and research and innovation seeking to introduce new agricultural technologies. While improving the overall agricultural value chains from primary to secondary production, the Morocco government introduced different training programmes and marketing and promotional activities. These initiatives improved the productivity of Morocco’s agriculture at least by 33%. Morocco’s agricultural exports to western Europe increased quite significantly. In Chile, the government sought to diversify away from the higher dependence on mining. To achieve this, the government introduced its PRODESAL Programme that sought to integrate and improve the capabilities of small-scale farmers to better serve Europe and the North American market. This influenced the transformation of Chile’s economy as the agricultural exports-led economy.

However, achievement of these required outcomes requires increased investment in agricultural products’ value addition. This would necessitate increased investment in agroprocessing, milling, packaging and the manufacturing of different products like cheese, ice cream and others from different agricultural products. Increased investment in agroprocessing catalyses agricultural productivity. It creates new ways of using different agricultural products, while also improving the market attractiveness of different agricultural products. As the government supports different small-scale farmers to adopt the best agricultural practices, it increases the investment in the development of different supportive infrastructures. The integral development of supportive infrastructures like roads, rails, connecting bridges, ICT, seaports and airports for international linkages, improves the attractiveness of the agricultural markets. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. However, in all these, it is the adopted agricultural zoning approaches that influence the question of whether the adopted agricultural practices and agribusiness approaches will be successful or not successful. Given the growing land shortages in Africa, usage of the right agricultural zoning approaches is becoming essential for improving the sustainability of agricultural production in different African countries (The Conversation, 2024; Zamchiya & Rusere, 2026).

Agricultural Zoning

It is through agricultural zoning that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Agricultural zoning is the systematic process of dividing and aggregating land for different specific agricultural activities that may include crop, fruits, livestock and poultry farming. It improves the optimization of agricultural land in the way that aids attainment of the best output from the limited agricultural land. Agricultural zoning is key for enhancing the success of agricultural production. The zoning process often provokes the government to discern land that can be used for just agricultural production. It also prompts government to assess the land that could be used for other purposes like residential, commercial, industrial, health and educational infrastructure development. Agricultural zoning is part of the tools for enhancing the effective land use management. It is part of the spatial planning and land use management tool that improves the discerning of what activities must take place where and how. This improves discerning how land can be optimized to enhance the realization of the best agricultural production results. Even if this improves planning and the utilization of land for the best results, most African countries still face the challenges of discerning how best to utilize the existing land to influence attainment of the best agricultural production results.

Effective land use management is often ignored as essential for improving the productivity of agricultural production in most African countries. Land is often not well-planned and utilized in the way that aids attainment of the greatest output. Leave alone the failure to plan and zone land for different agricultural purposes, most African countries still also have the problems of planning and zoning land for different purposes. It is not uncommon to find a factory or group of factories established in the middle of residential areas that also have cows as part of the domestic agricultural activities. Poor spatial planning and land use management has affected the utilization of the existing land in the way that attains the best results, while also improving the attractiveness of the investment conditions in some of the African countries. If factories or a group of factories are not located in the middle of residential areas, it is often not uncommon to find a school established in the middle of the agricultural production areas. Quite often, residential estates are also established in the middle of agricultural production zones. Planning laws, bylaws and regulations are not well implemented to ensure that residential developments are executed in the land zoned for residential development. There is laxity of ensuring that there is the designation of land specifically planned for agricultural production activities. There is a problem of ensuring that all industries or factories are established in the land designated for industrial zones. This poor land zoning and spatial planning has affected the utilization of land. Instead, land is wasted in most African countries.

Some African countries have adopted the appropriate land zoning and spatial development programmes. However, others still experience problems or ignore the importance of effective spatial planning and land zoning. Yet as such laxities unfold, most African countries have not yet started to realize that land for agricultural production is increasingly becoming limited. Because of land fragmentation, land which was used for agricultural production is being sold for the establishment of residential structures, industries or the other forms of infrastructure. Even without exhausting the land in the cities or different urban areas, constant increment of the population is driving people to explore, purchase and establish residential structures in the land which was previously reserved for different agricultural activities (The Conversation, 2024; Zamchiya & Rusere, 2026).

Even without optimizing land in cities and different urban areas by developing skyscrapers, most agricultural land in Africa is getting wasted as residential land or as some relatively meaningless or poorly planned and managed development. Without the intervention of different African governments to correct this error, it may turn to be too late to preserve land for agriculture. Even if the land in Africa is fragmented, the introduction of effective land zoning policies is still essential for ensuring that land zoned for agricultural production is strictly retained for agricultural production. Even if the current owner of such land is selling off the land, it must still be part of the government policy to ensure that the land zoned for agricultural production still gets retained for agricultural production. In a properly managed land zoning system, it is only the government that has the right to change land zoned for agriculture or different purposes into land used for other new purposes or uses. It is only the government that can change land zoned from the agricultural zone to industrial or residential zones. This improves the effective planning and utilization of land for not only agricultural purposes, but also other purposes like industrial, residential, educational and sports or commercial zones. Such approach improves the attractiveness of the country’s infrastructure. It improves the attractiveness of the investment conditions to in turn spur speedy economic development and growth. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Even if that is so, land in Africa still remains poorly managed.

From nowhere, a land owner just wakes up one day and changes land which was used for agriculture into a residential land even without consulting or seeking approval from the local government authorities. Yet as the African population increases exponentially, the poor management of land will cause wastage that limits the land available for agricultural production. Because the residential areas in most African cities and urban areas are not well managed to encourage the erection of high-rise buildings and skyscrapers for the surging urban population, the excesses from the surging population often move and convert the agricultural land in the rural areas into residential land. Most of the idle urban population will move to rural areas to get better land for residential development. That is when the agricultural land in the rural areas will get extinct. The end results will be manifested in the increasing food shortages, rising food prices, hunger, destitution and risks of increased violent crimes and behaviours as individuals seek to survive. In turn, all these will induce the politics of food. The politics of hunger and the politics of survival.

Politics of Food Shortages

Politics of food will arise to take advantage of the increasing food shortages, rising food prices, hunger and destitution to incite the population into riots, violent crimes and behaviours. In Kenya, a nasty political intention for regime change was disguised as a peaceful demonstration against economic hardships, the rising food prices and inflation, before it spiralled into the deadly Gen Z riots of June and July 2024. In South Africa, the politics of food is manifesting itself in the increasing tendency of the local politicians to use the increasing economic hardships, hunger and destitution to incite locals against African immigrants. Knowing very well that the locals are hungry and often more willing to loot foreign shops for food, politicians have often come in to use politics of food and make it appear as if when all the African immigrants are off the country, all the economic hardships and hunger arising from food shortages will disappear. Not just in South Africa, but also across Africa, the huge population of unemployed, hungry and foodless people are often available and ready to be utilized by politicians for scoring different mileages and goals. This renders food shortages and hunger a social and an economic issue that can turn into a major political crisis that needs to be prioritized.

 

Politics of food is being used as the strategy for scoring political points, even if the political party does not have any viable and plausible alternative economic solutions or manifesto to offer. In the end, nasty political rhetoric has instigated the emergence of vigilante groups that lead different violent attacks, crimes and behaviours. While also fuelling socio-economic disorder and chaos that threaten the attractiveness of the overall investment conditions of the country, the creation of a political terrain where the politics of food can continue thriving is the discord that some local politicians aspire to continue sowing among the local population who are often largely even unaware of the actual motives behind certain violent attacks. These violent behaviours are often manifested in the form of what has been called “xenophobic” attacks and violence. It is called xenophobia, but in-depth analysis would show that the actual root causes of such violent behaviours are not even associated with xenophobia at all. Poverty, rising unemployment, rising rents and the constantly spiralling prices of food have rendered it difficult for the low-income groups to survive. In the end, these create good conditions for the politics of food to come in. And once the politics of food sets in, the word “xenophobia” or the concept of fighting illegal immigration is often brought in to rationalize and justify violent behaviours and crimes, or as scapegoats when actually the hungry poor township population is just looking for what to eat. That explains why it is not the idle drug sellers loitering on the streets of Hillbrow who are the target.

Instead, it is the foreign African shops and supermarkets selling bread, milk, polony, Boerewors or “farmer’s sausage”, chicken, cold drinks and other foodstuffs which is the target. The likes of Jacinta Ngobese of South Africa’s March and March Movement may say “You are Missing the Point”. However, still, it is fortunate or even unfortunate that once foodstuffs in these shops are looted and the shops become dry, the perpetrators or leaders of the so-called “xenophobic” attacks or undocumented immigrants’ fight, never come back to check and ensure that the foreign owners of the looted shops have left the country. Instead, they move to loot the next shop of bread, milk and cold drinks in the next township. Is this hunger or xenophobia? Unfortunately, the consistent failure of the South African government to put its foot down and end this vice once and for all has rendered looting by the hungry locals a very lucrative business or alternative source of food. Instead of trying to look for legal ways to survive, most criminal gangs just relax and wait for spaza shops and supermarkets to thrive and do well.

Once the spaza shops are all over townships and thriving, they look for an excuse or a violent opportunity. If there is no justification for violence, like service delivery riots or incidents like the arrest of the former president Jacob Zuma, a vigilante group is invented to attack and loot spaza shops in the name of fighting illegal immigration. Once the spaza shops are looted dry, they vanish, and when they are full and doing well again, the looters come back. The circle continues, not until investors start to ask big questions like if Shoprite and big warehouses are also looted, is our investment worth it? Not until big investors start to ask big questions like if the investment condition in the country is paralysed for months or even upto 12 months in the case of this year, is it worth it? The option is insurance, but it seems even some insurance companies will become reluctant to indemnify some losses. Mismanaged land reforms in Zimbabwe instigated the declining food production and supplies not only in Zimbabwe, but even across Southern Africa. Decline of agricultural production and shortage of food were exacerbated by rising food prices, unbearable hunger and unemployment because of the poorly managed agricultural reforms affecting agricultural production. As supermarket shelves run dry and economic hardships increased, most Zimbabweans moved southwards into South Africa. And South Africa gained as it remained the only food basket of Southern Africa. Reversing and changing all these with its associated politics of food and violent consequences, will require Zimbabwe to abandon everything and focus solely on the revitalization of its agricultural production systems. It needs to review and restructure agricultural production systems along the models that first led Zimbabwe to be dubbed the “food basket of Southern Africa”. Zimbabwe became one of the thriving Southern African economies in the 1980s and early 90s because of the higher productivity of its agricultural systems. And once its agricultural productivity declined, it also went with the economy.

It is plausible that the Zimbabwean government has realized that prioritization of agricultural production’s revitalization is key for revitalizing the struggling economy. Revitalizing and improving the performance of Zimbabwe’s economy will ease the current South Africa’s economic pressure. However, unless the appropriate land reforms, land management and spatial planning systems are adopted across Africa, the current trends in Southern Africa where food politics is thriving for hungry people and criminals to easily organize themselves to attack and loot food from supermarkets and disguise it as xenophobia will not only stop in Southern Africa. Instead, it will also extend to the other parts of Africa. Using the politics of food that make locals view local economic problems as instigated by immigrants and not the poor structuring of some local economic systems, Kenya is so far contemplating the introduction of a Bill that seeks to prevent foreign African small-scale businesses from engaging in some small businesses that should have been done by Kenyans only. A few months ago, the same Kenya was talking about a visa-free movement in Africa and free trade across Africa. Given these inconsistencies, Africans are still asking if it is not these incompatibilities and inconsistencies of political ideologies that constantly create uncertainties that drag Africa behind? Certainly, there is increasing economic pressure exerted by the surging African population. And unless bold systematic decisions are made for Africa to tackle the emerging new economic challenges as an integral one economic system, confusion and uncertainties will continue to arise to affect the adoption of the concerted economic efforts that would have turned around things for the better.

 

In the agricultural domain, the adoption of the appropriate land zoning and management system is essential for mitigating such risks. As the population expands, the majority of the people are shifting to the rural areas and converting agricultural production land into residential land. No one is thinking of where the food will come from. Instead, people just take farmland and convert it into residential apartments and yet continue receiving food. Nobody thinks twice about where the eggs or milk for breakfast have come from? People are just taking new chunks of rural land, cutting trees and converting the previously well-known agricultural production land into residential buildings, commercial malls or factories. For now, the thought of where food is coming from may not be important. But in ten to twenty years from now, questions will start to linger as some foodstuffs will disappear completely, while others become quite expensive and reserved only for the wealthy. That is when the politics of food will become even a bigger game causing chaos, confusion and endless violence and conflicts in some African economies. By the time the population realizes that they actually do not have food, it will be too late. Following the introduction of new city council taxes in Lira, a city in Northern Uganda, produce dealers lamented that the city council is even not considering the fact that they import some of the beans and rice from Tanzania, which is another country on the Southern border of Uganda. Imagine coming all the way from the northern part of Uganda to buy beans from the southern part of Uganda in Tanzania. Because of its attractive climate, soil, vegetation and weather, Winston Churchill-the British Prime Minister of the World War II era, once baptized Uganda as the “Pearl of Africa”.

However, given such lamentations, questions are starting to be asked on what happened to the “Pearl of Africa” which was previously the major producer of agricultural products like beans, maize and rice? There is a quiet depletion of land for agricultural production, and unless proactive measures and interventions are undertaken to reverse the trend, it will only emerge to be too late for the required interventions to be undertaken. Yet as the African population increases, not all the African countries are good producers of different foodstuffs. Others like Chad, Senegal, Niger, Mali, Sudan, South Sudan and Egypt that are in deserts or less fertile land depend on the African countries that have fertile land. If the land in the African countries that have fertile land are also mismanaged, it means food crisis will arise to complicate life across Africa. Even if the African population is surging, some African countries are not bothered. Some African governments operate on the assumption and the possibility of luck that the surging African population will sort itself out. Others assume that a crisis will not arise because Europe, North America and Asia are predicted to experience declining population growth. That could be correct. However, still most of the countries in Europe, Asia and North America have introduced different fertility and child support policies that may render such assumptions a myth or a fallacy.

Politics of Population Explosion

In some African countries, the surging uncontrolled population growth is being used by some existing and emerging new players and actors in Africa as the pretext for creating political mayhem or discord. While these unfold in Africa, it is not the case in Europe, Asia and America. Europe, Asia and America have changed policies to embrace higher fertility rates and uncontrolled childbirth as the new policy for reversing the declining population. In Europe, Hungary has started giving out benefits like housing subsidies and permanent income tax exemptions for parents that have four or more children. It introduced preferential loans for young couples upon giving birth to children. Hungary provides direct financial support and debt relief for families that have children. These financial incentives are most likely to encourage young couples to produce more children. Estonia offers monthly child allowances, reimbursed salary during parental leave and flexible work-life balance that encourages couples to balance family responsibilities with the normal work duties. In Bulgaria, the government offers a range of different support programmes like paid parental and maternity leave for even up to two years. It also provides more effective childcare infrastructure as well as the state-financed childcare in different geographical locations.

 

Couples from families with children are also widely protected at the workplace against any unfair practices. This encourages couples to have and take care of children without being worried of having to face the consequences of having to compromise their work performance. On realizing that its population was dwindling at the rate as low as 1.39 children per woman-which is quite below the required 2.1 threshold for a replacement rate, Britain is considering eradicating the one-child-cap requirements for support. It is also removing or easing the financial penalties for larger families, while also seeking to introduce transferable tax allowances, tax quotient systems where income tax thresholds depend on the number of dependent children. The British government introduced housing subsidies, low-interest mortgages supported by the government for first-time buyers and universal childcare programmes. It also provides state funding for different reproductive healthcare programmes. Universal childcare support programme encourages young working couples to consider having more children without worrying about how childcare burden would affect their professional jobs and work.

Due to the advancement of information technology, the British government has also encouraged most organisations to introduce flexible work systems like remote work or work-from-home programmes. Flexible work systems enable working couples with children balance work with family responsibilities. However, remote work only tends to be effective for working couples doing less physical jobs like customer care, call centre management. For physical work like working in a factory or working as a doctor or a nurse in the medical field, usage of remote or flexible work system can be very difficult.

Table 1: Population Growth Rate in Europe 2005-2015 and 2015-2025

Source: World Bank. (2026). World Bank Data on Population Growth (annual %) – European Union. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=EU&utm_source=chatgpt.com

In the United States, to reverse the declining population, the US government has introduced universal child allowance, tax credits, debt relief and extended paid parental leave of even up to 1 year. In addition to parent quotas aimed at encouraging shared parenting by men who often abandon their family responsibilities for the women, the US government also funds free childcare for a period of up to five years after birth. The US government subsidizes nannies for families living in rural areas or that work night shifts. These are integrated with the funding for free fertility treatments and free healthcare services during giving birth. In Germany, similar benefits are also offered to encourage families to have more children. These different forms of child support programmes are having significant effects that reverse the declining population in Asia, North America and Europe. China has shifted away from its one-child policy which was used for decades to the embrace the policy that encourages couples to have more children and bigger families. To achieve that, the Chinese government now pays 3,600 yuan or $500 for each child up to the age of three. Hence, any African country which was banking on the assumption that the declining population in North America, Europe and Asia would offer space for Africa to offload its excess population in 2050 is certainly mistaken. Instead, it seems in 2050, which is 24 years from now, North America, Europe and Asia will have already addressed and reversed the currently declining population growth rate. Just like in the other parts of the EU, in Hungary, a lot of new measures have been adopted over the past years to improve fertility and influence more families to have more children.

 

It is predicted that most European governments’ increasing investment in child support programmes, subsidies, childcare, parental leave and housing for new couples having more children may reverse the existing declining population trends. However, critics still argue that increased subsidies and state support to families are unlikely to reverse the increasingly ageing population’s low fertility and family behaviours that prevent the having of more children. In Italy, most of the people are older and in menopause stages. Hence, any attempt to influence the increment of childbirth may not have much overriding effects that increase Italy’s population in 20 years from now. It may influence, but the long-term effects may be quite low. Unless new intervening factors emerge to instigate the sudden increment of the European Union population, the EU population growth is predicted to slightly change from its 451.8 million people in 2025 to just 453.3 million people in 2029. From 2030 to 2050, the EU population is predicted to fall to 445.0 million people in 2050. This implies the EU population will still remain almost as it is now. As the African population increases, it signifies it may become difficult for the EU to have extra space that absorbs the population pressure from Africa. United Nations Population Fund predicts Africa’s population to grow from 1.55 billion people in 2025 to 1.7 billion people in 2030 and then to 2.5 billion people by 2050. This implies as the African population growth surges, the EU will still be having the current kind of population growth pressure.

Table 2: Predicted Changes in EU Population Growth 2050

Source: EuroStat. (2026). Population projections in the EU: Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/44711.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

If Africa was hoping for the EU to absorb some of its population growth pressure, this implies that it is not the case. Despite the prediction of the declining population in Europe, the EU may still not be able to help absorb some of the population growth pressure from Africa. Such risks suggest that instead of banking on the possibility of offloading some of its population to the EU, Africa must instead start planning on how to tackle, control and respond to some of the challenges that may arise from its surging population growth. In that process, the invention and use of the appropriate agricultural production systems, models and agricultural zoning models is part of the proactive strategies that the African governments can utilize to respond to food security threats, while also using land zoning in the way that optimizes the utilization of the existing land. Over the years, some of the agricultural zoning models that have been used by some of the most successful agricultural-based economies like Brazil, China, Netherlands and Germany include Von-Thunen Model for Agricultural Zoning, Agro-Ecological Zoning Model, GIS and GRID-Based Models, Remote Sensing and Spatialtemporal Models, and Regulatory and Municipal Zoning Ordinances. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger.

Agro-Ecological Zoning

FAO’s Agro-Ecological Zoning Framework diagnoses and maps soil, terrain conditions, climate, water levels, potential crop production and yield to discern the geographical areas of the country that must be designated for agricultural production. Von-Thunen Model for Agricultural Zoning focuses on assessing the conditions and perishability of the agricultural products to be produced. If the agricultural product is easily perishable or does not cost much in the market, the agricultural zone would be located near storage facilities, or road, rail and airport networks. GIS and GRID-Based Models use Geographical Information System and spatial data on soil fertility, water, land slopeness, hydrology and altitude. From these data, the model allocates mathematical weights and the algorithms that cluster data into distinct agricultural districts and the purposes for which they could be suitable if zoned into different agricultural zones. It is from these zonings that the regulatory and municipal zoning ordinances are applied to designate which areas can be allocated and enforced as the agricultural zones. It also delineates the areas that must not be designated as the agricultural zones or farmland.

Given the advancement of the information technology systems, remote sensing and spatiotemporal models emerged to enhance the use of NDVI Time-Series, Satellite Data and other Digital Elevation Models to assess cropping systems and the geographical locations that can be designated as the farmland or the agricultural zones. Before Russia decimated Ukraine’s economy, Ukraine had emerged as the ninth wheat producer and exporter in the world, due to how it managed its land zoning and agricultural zoning programmes. Because of good management of all its agricultural zones, Ukraine would annually produce 23 million metric tons of wheat which further increased up to 33 metric tons before the Ukraine economic activities were disrupted by Russia’s aggression. Using its Land Code of Ukraine, the government of Ukraine adopted the spatial plan and land zoning and management policies that classified its land into nine zones encompassing:

• Agricultural Land
• Residential and Public Land
• Nature Reserve and Environmental Protection Land
• Health and Recreational Lands
• Historic and Cultural Lands
• Forest Lands
• Water Fund Lands
• Industrial, Transport and Defence Lands
• Reserve Lands

Of all these categories, agricultural land is used for farming, research and the development of different agricultural support infrastructure like demonstration farms or agricultural research institutes. Residential and public building lands are often held together because residential development comes with the establishment of ancillary cities, towns or smart cities. These cities often exist hand in hand with different residential areas because they offer the required services like water and sanitation, refuse collection, electricity supplies and safety and security to the communities living in different surrounding cities. Nature reserve and environmental protection lands are natural habitats preserved for natural aesthetic values, tourism, ecological, scientific, environmental or medical values. In Africa, most of the natural forests that were previously reserved due to their medicinal values are extinct because of the poor land zone management. In contrast with the approaches in Africa, Ukraine created land zones for health and recreational lands to cater for land holding important recreational and health purposes for things like treatment, therapy, picnics, public rest and holidays. Land zoned for historic and cultural purposes are used for activities like the establishment of museums, monuments and archaeological sites. These sites are often used for purposes of enhancing tourism activities in the country.

However, in some African countries, land is only zoned for residential and commercial zones. This leaves some of the most important historical sites neglected and decimated to undermine efforts of enriching tourism activities and package that the country offers. For the sake of enriching the ecological attractiveness of the country, while also fighting global warming, Ukraine zoned some of its land as forest lands. This improved vegetation management as well as the management of forest land in the way that reduces the risks of climate change and global warming. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. In addition to forest lands, Ukraine has zoned its land into the water fund lands to preserve the natural habitats of the land areas that hold lakes, rivers, coastal or hydraulic structures, lakes, swarms or other important water bodies. This also prevents the risks of water contamination that not only poses risks to different aquatics and living organisms around the water bodies, but also the humans that use the water-bodies for different purposes.

In Ukraine, land zoned for industrial, transport and defence lands are usually reserved for the development of public infrastructure like energy, transportation, industrial, defence and water infrastructure. Even after zoning, dividing and taking up land for different purposes, Ukraine has still often left some land under its zones for reserve lands. Reserve lands are often the unallocated state land or municipal lands that remain idle with the hope of mitigating any future risks of land shortages. This approach is in line with the principle of inter-generational equity and sustainable development, as derived from the 27 Principles of the 1992 Rio Declaration on Environment and Sustainable Development. The Ukraine government hopes that by putting aside zones for land reserve, it becomes possible to mitigate risks of any future land shortages that can affect development. In Africa, most of these land zoning approaches are widely known among town planners and development experts. However, corruption has often affected the retaining of the required land zoned as the land reserve aimed at mitigating any future risks of land shortages. Yet as time changes and the country evolves, it can reach a situation where a catalysing development project needs to be established in the strategic location of the city to spur the overall pace of economic development and growth of the country. However, because of poor land zoning and management, the government can lack the strategic land for the establishment of such a project.

 

After zoning the required land for agricultural production, Ukraine still again adopted different agricultural zoning approaches to create sub-zones for its different agricultural zones. Ukraine’s agricultural zoning approach sought to re-organize its agricultural zones or the designated farmlands according to soil, climate and landscape features. It created three zones that include mixed forest zones or polisia, forest-steppe zone and steppe zone. Because polisia region which is in northern Ukraine, is covered with sandy loam soil and high moisture, it is often used for oak and pine forests as well as for fodder crops and potatoes farming. Forest-Steppe Zone that falls on the South of Ukraine is rich with black earth soils and balanced climate suitable for grain, sugar beets and horticulture farming. Steppe-Zone which is on the eastern and southern parts of Ukraine has dry climates and highly fertile soils which became suitable for oilseed production and cereal farming.

Just like in Ukraine, China offers the best example of how it has managed and controlled its agricultural land zones for years as its population growth spiked into 1.5 billion people in 2026. To enhance its food security amid a threatening population growth, China introduced a range of different policies aimed at protecting its agricultural zones from being destroyed by the effects of rapid urbanization. In addition to using the advanced spatial optimization and Bayesian networks to control different ecological constraints, China uses a range of different policies, laws and regulations to control and protect its 120 million hectares of arable land throughout the country. It uses controls like binding quotas, permanent basic farm zoning, command-control enforcement, requisition-compensation balance system, high-standard farmland construction, urban-rural spatial planning and restructuring. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger.

Using binding quotas, the government has set the mandatory land for agricultural cultivation. For ease of periodic evaluation, control and management, this agricultural land is divided to cascade down according to province, city, county and township administrative structures. Permanent basic farmland zones are important highly productive agricultural land zones where no form of non-agricultural production activities is permitted at any time. If agricultural land zones are encroached, the command-control enforcement comes in to hold the designated government officials responsible and accountable for the unauthorized conversion of agricultural land into other forms of land uses. In that process, requisition-compensation balance system requires fair and balanced compensation for any arable land encroached by the developers. Developers or local government can also reclaim, restore or develop any agricultural land that had been lost to urban expansion. Besides that, high-standard farmland construction requires farmland to be developed and equipped with all the essential equipment and infrastructure for irrigation and mechanization. As technology integration requires the utilization of the required technologies to improve agricultural efficiency and productivity, urban-rural spatial planning and restructuring use compact urbanization designs instead of sprawling land expansion. Instead of expanding the urban centres into new land, compact urbanization designs adopted by China, integrates high density, mixed-use zoning and smart transit networks to establish sustainable walkable cities. It focuses on optimizing the existing urban land and infrastructure instead of pushing the urban centre expansion to consume new land.

Just like in China, in the United States, constant population growth arising from the increasing immigration, prompted the US government to adopt stringent measures for protecting its agricultural land. The US local and county-level agricultural zoning ordinances prevented residential subdivision on farmland. It also introduced the right-to-farm laws to prevent the encroachment on agricultural land by housing developers. Countries, including Brazil that have used measures for protecting agricultural land have been able to realise improved agricultural production. Improved agricultural production reduced risks of food insecurities, while also improving exports from the excesses. It also reduced the risks of the politics of population explosion, food insecurities and hunger emerging to distort its economic growth and development. Improved agricultural productivity increased foreign exchange earnings and better balance of payment. Higher agricultural production boosted employment creation. It also reduces inflation as prices of food fall. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. However, achievement of such positive socio-economic outcomes will not only require usage and protection of the agricultural land zones put in place, but also the use of the appropriate agribusiness models.

Agribusiness Models

Agribusiness model is the strategic framework through which all the agricultural production activities are arranged, structured and managed in the way that creates and delivers the best values for the farmers, while also improving and catalysing economic productivity and growth of the economy. Effective management of agribusiness is essential for leveraging the competitiveness of the country’s agricultural production systems. It positions agricultural production to best benefit the farmers. Once the farmers are happy and excited, it becomes easier for them to produce maximum output for domestic consumption and exports. If farmers are happy, it becomes easier to increase the overall agricultural productivity. It also excites farmers to adopt the best agricultural quality management practices, so that they can produce the best quality agricultural products.

Despite investing heavily in the initiatives that improve agricultural production, it is often quality issues that affect the ability of the agricultural products from Africa to penetrate the international market. Even in just the local domestic markets in Africa, some agricultural products are often avoided and excluded from some internal supply chain systems due to poor quality. Hence, the improvement of the quality of agricultural products is essential for improving the attractiveness of the local agricultural products in the local markets. Improved quality of agricultural products implies even the multinational players like KFC, McDonald’s and Nestlé that are increasingly joining the local African market, will instead start to source their food inputs from local sources. In other words, the future of multinational fastfood operators like McDonald’s, Starbucks, KFC, Burger King, Domino’s and Taco Bell is in Africa. When KFC first opened its outlets in Uganda, consumers were a bit reluctant. But as the population increases and farmland dwindles, KFC is now becoming the option as consumers lack what to eat. McDonald’s is still missing out in sub-Saharan African fast-food market. However, that is the secret which KFC is yet to release to McDonald’s and Burger King about the increasing boom in the Sub-Saharan African fast-food markets. Increasing interests from multinational fast-food operators means good quality management must be taken as the most important integral component of agricultural production. Improvement of the quality of the agricultural products improves the sellability of the final agricultural products. The introduction and use of the appropriate agribusiness models mitigate such risks of agricultural products’ poor competitiveness.

Effective agribusiness model aids quality evaluation not during harvesting and processing stages. Instead, usage of the appropriate agribusiness model aids quality management throughout the agricultural production value chains flowing from sourcing seedlings, preparing farmland, cultivating, planting or breeding animals, weeding and spraying against pesticides, putting additional manure, harvesting, storing, processing and disposal to the wholesalers, retailers, manufacturers and then the final consumers. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Throughout these chains, effective quality management is the integral part of the agricultural value chain management. It requires thorough quality evaluation and management during the sourcing stages to discern which are the best quality seedlings or breeds of animals to purchase. Once the quality of seedlings is evaluated, agribusiness model also assesses how the actual farmland must be prepared and managed in the way that aids the generation of the best yields. It examines whether soil, water, irrigation, weeding and pesticides’ spraying activities are being managed well to enhance the production of the desired agricultural yields.

Upon harvesting, usage of the right agribusiness model aids the evaluation of whether the agricultural outputs have the right market access. Even before agricultural production commences, it is such analysis that enables farmers to assess whether they have the markets, customers and the right government institutions to support the extension and creation of additional new markets using bilateral trade agreements and co-operation. As the African population starts to grow exponentially, the use of the appropriate agribusiness model is essential for reducing the risks of food insecurities as well as the unwarranted politics that came with food insecurities. Better management of different agribusiness models improves food security to aid the country’s ability to respond to the food needs of its population. Such insights echo the simple economic principles articulated by Malthusian Theory that as the population growth surges exponentially, food production often does not follow such exponential growth pattern to cause food shortages.

Malthus raises the use of unethical methods and rudimentary means like usage of diseases, wars and fertility and birth controls as the measures for limiting population growth. However, critics of Malthusian Theory argue that usage of the modern technologies like chemical fertilizers, refrigeration to extend food products’ lifecycle and invention of innovative agricultural approaches can enable the country to overcome food shortages arising from exponential population growth. Development and use of the appropriate agribusiness development model is part of the quests of adopting the innovative initiatives and technology that improve food production. In effect, a range of different innovative agribusiness models that have emerged to influence how agricultural production is accomplished in different countries include (Collins, 2025; Jessen, 2026):

• Contract Farming
• Value Chain Integration
• Cooperatives/Collective Groups
• ICT-Based Extension Platforms
• Low-Cost Specialization

It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Using contract farming, the government creates the conditions where large-scale buyers enter into an agreement with the small-scale farmers to produce and supply the agricultural outputs of the designated quantity and quality.

Contract Farming

In the agreement, the large-scale corporate buyer often accepts to provide seedlings, funding, training and support with the required farming technologies and skills. The large-scale buyers also offer to enhance quality management capabilities so that the small-scale farmers produce and supply the required quality. Contract farming arrangement is part of the initiative of how the small-scale farmers are supported and encouraged to grow into medium and larger agricultural business enterprises. It is commonly used by Nestlé to support local small-scale dairy farmers. Since contract farming provides ready market for the designated agricultural products, it tends to inspire more small-scale farmers to invent and establish different agribusiness entities. From the contract farming experiences in countries like Kenya and Uganda, there is a general consensus that it boosts agricultural productivity to create more employment opportunities. It also improves the empowerment of various small-scale farmers with the required agricultural technologies and skills.

 

Contract farming offers the opportunities for large scale manufacturers that require a lot of agricultural inputs to influence production by mobilizing and supporting the small-scale farmers to adopt the production of the required agricultural products. It indirectly enhances the development of the agricultural skills which were previously lacking. When these large-scale manufacturers like Nestlé, General Millers, Cargill, KFC, Unilever, McDonald’s and Domino’s that emphasize on quality come in, they often come in with new unique skills and technologies on how certain agricultural production activities must be accomplished. Hence, in one way or another, contract farming enriches the development of different agricultural production activities. For contract farming to influence the attainment of the desired agricultural production outcomes, the different forms of contract farming that can be used include:

• Centralized Model
• Nucleus Estate Model
• Multipartite Model
• Informal Model
• Intermediary Model

It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. For the centralized model of contract farming, the large-scale buyer provides all the agricultural inputs while also offering quotas that must be delivered by each of the designated small-scale farmers. Throughout the agricultural production stages, centralized model requires the constant analysis and management of quality. Centralized model of contract farming is often used in the situations where quality management is quite essential for creating differential values that bolster the large-scale buyers’ competitiveness. Centralized model is an out-growers’ scheme where the large-scale buyer engages in contract farming that permits the purchase of agricultural products like sugarcane, cotton, tea, tobacco, cocoa and coffee from multitudes of the contracted farmers. To improve cotton production in the 1980s and 1990s, Lonhro introduced outgrowers schemes as part of the centralized contract farming model to encourage the production and purchase of the right quantity of cotton from 15, 000 farmers in Zambia. This concept was also used in Northern Uganda to catalyse cotton production in the 1980s and 90s. Centralized model of contract farming is also used for encouraging sugarcane production.

In Thailand, 46 individual sugar production mills were able to engage over 200,000 sugarcane growers to produce several tons of sugarcane. In the 1990s, this initiative redefined Thailand as the new exporter of sugar to different countries in the Asian region. Among the multinational corporations that deal in different aspects of food production, contract farming has been widely adopted as the measures for controlling quality. Since the likes of PepsiCo that produces Frito-Lay potato chips are highly concerned about quality and its competitiveness, it introduced contract farming to control, guide and manage the quality of potatoes produced by the contracted farmers. PepsiCo provides a variety of seedlings, invests in research and innovation to identify and adopt the best new seedlings and farming practices. It also introduces different training and skills’ development programmes for the contracted farmers, while also providing the required technical and financial support. Quite often, the volume of the support implies the contracted farmers sell the potatoes to PepsiCo at discounted prices.

As part of the terms in contract farming, the final prices to be paid to the contracted farmers are often negotiated and concluded in advance. Even if prices fall upon harvest as it is the case for most agricultural production activities, this offers some certainties in terms of the revenues that the contracted farmers can generate from their agricultural production activities. Just like PepsiCo, Nestlé, the food producer that relies on consistent production and delivery of the best quality products also believes that usage of contract farming enhances effective quality management. It aids the guiding of the contracted farmers on what is required or not required to enhance the attainment of the best quality outcomes. In the production of cocoa and coffee in West Africa and Brazil, Nestlé, as part of contract farming offers seedlings, training as well as financial and technical support to all the contracted farmers (Nestlé, 2026b). Being one of the major global food production companies, Nestlé is under enormous pressure to comply and adhere with the requisite sustainable agricultural practices. For that reason, Nestlé, in addition to emphasizing stringent adherence to the required quality specifications, it has also adopted different concepts of regenerative agriculture. It trains its contracted farmers on how to adopt sustainable agricultural practices and good regenerative agricultural practices. Nestlé has partnered with ofi to engage and manage several small-scale farmers in different regions of the world where it produces coffee and cocoa products (Nestlé, 2026a).

Just like Nestlé, Unilever uses contract farming to engage multitudes of farmers in the production of tea, fresh vegetables and palm oil. It uses contract farming to control quality and ensure the consistent stable supplies of quality inputs for its different production plants. To achieve that, Unilever supplies the required inputs, manages agricultural production and quality, while also providing the required training and technical and financial support. Though similar to the centralized model, the nucleus model of contract farming still differs from the centralized model on the basis that the large-scale buyer often creates a central estate or plantation which is used for agricultural research, training and guiding the contracted small-scale farmers on the initiatives that must be undertaken to enhance attainment of the best yields. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. In nucleus estate, a central demonstration farm is created to teach and train the contracted farmers to adopt the best agricultural practices. After the new ideas have diffused, the farmers are then required to do different activities on their own, but also while still consulting and engaging with the designated experts in the nucleus estate. Nucleus estate has been widely used in Papua New Guinea and Indonesia to instil new skills and support that encourage the production of palm oil and other crops.

Despite establishing a central plantation or estate, the large-scale buyer using the nucleus estate model often still provides inputs and the required technical support to the contracted small-scale farmers. Unlike the nucleus estate, the multipartite model is often used in situations where there are so many players involved in the execution of different contract farming activities. In such situations, contract farming could be introduced by the government to enhance the development and support of the emerging small-scale farmers across the country. The multipartite model of contract farming could be developed to engage several agricultural cooperatives of small-scale farmers, development financial institutions and commercial banks to provide the required support and the designated government agencies that deal with the development of small-scale farmers. In Colombia, the attempt to use centralized model of contract farming to encourage the production of passion fruits failed when more and more contract farmers joined in to create multitudes of contracted farmers. Farming activities’ coordination became difficult. The costs of dealing with the individual contracted farmers failed.

Managing targets and quality also became difficult. This failure of the centralized model of contract farming prompted the introduction of the multipartite model of contract farming. Using the multipartite model, the contracted farmers were required to create cooperatives, while the designated government institutions coordinated the activities for the provision of the required credit facilities, financial and technical support as well as training from the other organisations. In Kenya, West Africa and Mexico, multipartite contract farming models have also been recognized as instrumental for engaging the other supportive players like NGOs that support farmers, credit institutions offering credit to small-scale farmers and the other government institutions. Multipartite contract farming recognizes contract farming as being not only the activities between the large-scale buyers and the contracted farmers. Instead, it recognizes that to achieve the best results, contract farming requires a lot of other players which are essential for developing contract farmers into better farmers. In effect, in Kenya, West Africa and Mexico, multipartite contract farming model was introduced to encourage the production of different agricultural products like tea, coffee, cocoa and palm oil. Though it is good for managing large-scale production, the business can still fail to effectively control and influence the production of quality products that it needs. Contrasted with multipartite model, the informal model does not require large-scale buyers of agricultural produce to conclude any formal contract farming agreement.

Informal Model of Contract Farming

Instead, it develops a common understanding where the small-scale farmers produce and supply what is required to the large-scale buyers. The large-scale buyers offer to provide the required ready market that takes all the designated agricultural products. If the large-scale buyer fails to purchase the products, there is no liability just as when the designated small-scale farmers fail to supply the required quantities or quotas. Sometimes, the government in collaboration with the designated large-scale buyers can provide inputs, technical support and finances, but without being held liable if they fail to provide the required support. As some large-scale buyers use the informal model of contract farming, some have adopted the intermediary model of contract farming. Using the intermediary model of contract farming, the large-scale buyer does not directly deal with the contracted farmers.

Instead, the large-scale buyer appoints the agent, subcontractor or the aggregator, broker, NGO or a cooperative union that deals with the contracted smallholder farmers. The appointed third-party agent provides all the inputs, resources, training and the required technical and financial support to ensure that the smallholder farmers deliver the best agricultural production results. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Contract farming usage has been essential for enabling large-scale businesses get what they want from the contracted smallholder farmers. In Indonesia, empirical facts imply that as the large-scale buyers support the smallholder farmers, they also tend to help the government support the development and sustainable evolution of its agricultural sector. In the long run, this catalyses economic productivity, employment creation and improved economic growth and development.

 

Due to its value for enhancing the production of the best quantity and quality of agricultural outputs, contract farming has been widely adopted by multinational corporations that cherish good quality as a competition enhancing strategy. Multinational food production corporations like Nestlé that view quality management as essential for leveraging competitiveness often use contract farming to control the production and supply of the right quantities and quality. If the multinational corporation is buying from so many smallholder farmers, there is not only a risk of getting poor quality, but also little quantity. Along the way, some of the smallholder farmers may abandon farming. Others may fail to deal with the outbreak of new diseases. Usage of contract farming often aids the constant interface between the large-scale buyer and the smallholder farmers. This interface improves the constant evaluation of whether the designated smallholder farmers are doing the right things to influence attainment of the right agricultural production outputs and quality. Nestlé, as one of the multinational food production corporations, recognizes contract farming as essential for enabling the getting of what they want from the engaged smallholder farmers (Nestlé, 2026b). Because of the value of contract farming, Nestlé is one of the multinational corporations that uses all aspects of contract farming like centralized model, dairy cooperatives, informal agreements and regenerative agricultural procurement to achieve the best agribusiness results. To enhance the production of the right quality and quantity of red rice and chilli in Malaysia and spices in India, Nestlé uses the centralized model to deal directly with several cooperatives, smallholder farmers and individual large-scale farmers. Under its dairy cooperative for contract farming, Nestlé offers the required milk production plan, training and technical and financial support to ensure that the dairy cooperatives produce and deliver the right quantity and quality of milk. If Nestlé is not using the formal dairy cooperatives, it can use the informal agreements.

Using informal agreements, Nestlé offers the required technical support and training with the common understanding that the smallholder farmers will produce and deliver the right quantities and quality of the required agricultural products. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. If Nestlé does not support or if the smallholder farmers fail to deliver, it still does not attract any liability (Nestlé, 2026b). Nestlé uses this approach for sourcing coffee where most of the individual smallholder farmers are often very successful in managing their individual coffee plantations, except for a few challenges that Nestlé is willing to intervene and correct. In this process, Nestlé has adopted regenerative agriculture as one of the strategies for branding itself as an ecologically-friendly food and agricultural production multinational corporation. Just like Nestlé, Unilever is the other multinational food production company that uses almost all forms of contract farming methods like centralized model, nucleus model, multipartite model, informal and intermediary models.

In terms of multipartite contract farming model, Unilever has created a network of its supply chain system as the buyer as well as the networks of various cooperatives, smallholder farmers and non-governmental organisations that seamlessly work with each other to produce and deliver the required cocoa and palm oil products. It uses independent mills and aggregators as agents that link its global supply chain and procurement systems with the multitudes of different smallholder farmers. This network has enabled Unilever work with several smallholder farmers that are scattered in different parts of the world. In the business world, contract farming is used as the means of getting smallholder farmers to produce and deliver the required quantity and quality of agricultural outputs. As the multinational food and agricultural corporation accomplish this, most of the developing countries’ governments easily recognize usage of contract farming as critical for supporting and improving the performance of smallholder farmers. In the long run, it catalyses economic growth and development.

Contract farming creates the market for the smallholder farmers’ products, while also providing the required agricultural inputs and support. On recognising that this improves agricultural development of the country, India adopted the use of multipartite contract farming model to support and improve the growing of tomatoes and tea by the smallholder farmers operating in areas like Nashik, Assam and West Bengal areas. The motive of the introduction of multipartite contract farming was to improve the growing of tea and tomatoes, while also enhancing the adoption of good agricultural practices. Through these initiatives, India mobilized 3,000 tomato farmers and 5500 hectares of tea to adopt good agricultural practices and climate-resilient method of agriculture. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Contract farming is one of the ways of mobilizing farmers to adopt agricultural practices that transform agribusiness and the overall contribution of agricultural production to the wellbeing of the economy. In Kenya, Knorr Brands adopted the intermediary and centralized models of contract farming in order to improve the growing of herbs and vegetables for smallholder farmers. Knorr brands and government partnered with Njoro Canning Factory that developed and integrated 1,500 smallholder farmers and 30 large-scale Kenyan farmers into Knorr Brands’ supply chain system. In Indonesia, Unilever introduced multipartite and centralized contract farming methods when it sought to introduce the different high-yield varieties of coconut and palm oil.

The multipartite and centralized models of contract farming encouraged the formation of a partnership between Indonesia’s state-owned PTPN 1V, Unilever as the buyer/sponsor and the designated smallholder farmers in the areas like West Java and Lampung (Collins, 2025). These varieties of high-yield coconut and palm oil improved the productivity of palm oil and coconut production in Indonesia. It also improved household incomes as more smallholder farmers joined Unilever’s contract farming because of the ready market provided by Unilever. While seeking to improve the production and supply of Jasmine rice from Thailand, Unilever also introduced the multipartite contract farming model that encouraged the collaboration with Livelihoods Funds to support farmers to produce the highest output (Jessen, 2026). In the United Kingdom, Colman’s introduced multipartite contract farming model when it sought to increase the production of mustard and mint.

Colman’s created a partnership with English Mustard Growers and Norfolk Mint Growers to support farmers with digital irrigation infrastructure and low-carbon fertilizers. Contract farming offers one of the ways of improving agricultural productivity and output in the areas where the country could be experiencing challenges and shortfalls. In the United States, the government introduced corporate farming contracts to improve the production of different poultry, pork, sugar and beets’ products. Corporate farming contracts are essential for mitigating the exposure of farms to drastic open-market price swings that could affect profits. Yet if it is not the different forms of contract farming methods which are being used as the novel agribusiness models, some agricultural production enterprises often use Value Chain Integration or Cooperatives/Collective Groups. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger.

Farmers’ Cooperatives

Farmers’ Cooperatives refer to the collective framework through which the individual farmers or groups of farmers come together to join resources and efforts in the accomplishment of common agricultural activities that improve the betterment of their agribusiness performance (Deepak, 2016). In most of the developing countries, agricultural cooperatives are increasingly being adopted as the mechanism for empowering the local farmers’ groups. Cooperatives improve the individual bargaining power of the farmers. Because of the collectiveness of cooperatives, it enables individual farmers gain the unique agricultural inputs, resources and technologies that they would have not gained or accessed without the use of agricultural cooperatives. Because the agricultural cooperatives buy in bulk, they gain the bargaining power to negotiate even better prices of seedlings, fertilizers, pesticides and all the required farming equipment. This reduces operational costs and prices to improve the price competitiveness of most of the farmers’ agricultural products (Deepak, 2016; Hogeland, 2006; Munch, 2026). Even when the government aims to support and empower the local farmers, it is often still the existing agricultural cooperatives that create the best economic frameworks through which the ordinary farmers can be reached and empowered. Agricultural cooperatives improve the interface and communication between government and the ordinary farmers. It enables farmers easily reach government to highlight the problems affecting farmers and agriculture in a particular sector. This enables the government easily discern the kinds of agricultural challenges that need to be tackled to improve the contribution of agriculture to the country’s gross domestic product and economic growth and development of the country. To respond to the challenges of unemployment, poverty and food insecurity in Dokolo District, Northern Uganda, Heifer International supported a group of youths to establish Kwera Youth Oilseed Farmers’ Cooperative. The success of Kwera Youth Oilseed Farmers’ Cooperative has attracted thousands of young farmers to transform the production of sunflower and soybeans as the new major cash-crops of the region.

As the cooperative advocated for better prices, it improved the farmers’ household incomes, while also reducing the rate of unemployment, idleness and poverty among the rural youths (Nalubega, 2023). Even when seeking to access the required credit facilities, it is the established agricultural cooperatives that improve the creditworthiness of the individual farmers. Ordinarily, most of the commercial banks are often unwilling to think twice when dealing with the individual smallholder farmers due to the involved higher risks. However, using the established agricultural cooperatives, the creditworthiness of the individual farmers improves. This enables the individual farmers access the required capital finance that can be used for expanding and improving the performance of their agricultural businesses. In Kenya, this is reflected in the establishment of Kenya Tea Development Agency (KTDA) that improved thousands of smallholder farmers’ access to better farm inputs, seeds, fertilizers and markets. Agricultural cooperatives are key for improving the effective performance of the individual smallholder farmers. Individually, the individual smallholder farmers are often unable to afford all the resources, technology and farming equipment and machineries like tractors and combine harvesters.

 

However, using the pulled resources of agricultural cooperatives, such a problem is often solved as the individual smallholder farmers in the agricultural cooperatives can mobilize resources to buy one or two tractors that are shared by all the individual smallholder farmers in the agricultural cooperatives. Because the farmers are together, agricultural cooperatives enable the individual farmers share resources like water and services for veterinary doctors. In the Netherlands, when the farmers were faced with the problems of poor competitiveness and limited land mass, it was the establishment of agricultural cooperatives like Flora-Holland and Royal FriesLand Campina that influenced the invention and adoption of some innovative agricultural solutions. Just like the other agricultural cooperatives, Royal FriesLand Campina was able to get farmers to mobilize resources to build a modern advanced cold-chain logistics that have proved to be one of the best in the world. Using the existing collective frameworks of different farmers, some agricultural cooperatives like Flora-Holland created a central auction system that provided the market platform for individual farmers to sell their products. Agricultural cooperatives enable individual farmers pull and share resources and farming equipment to eliminate some of the resource and equipment limitations that could have undermined the performance of some individual farmers. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger.

Using the existing frameworks for agricultural cooperatives, it often becomes easier to organise training and development programmes for the smallholder farmers operating in a particular region and cooperatives. This improves the government’s intervention aimed at improving agricultural production and productivity in the country. Even with the highest yield, most of the smallholder farmers often do not know where to sell their products. This causes the exploitation of smallholder farmers by the middlemen that go into villages to look for agricultural produce that they resell to the buyers of different agricultural products. Nonetheless, using agricultural cooperatives, the farmers are usually able to negotiate and conclude better prices and a ready market for their products. This improves certainty in terms of the expected revenue inflows. In India, when the milk farmers were overexploited by the middlemen who paid exceptionally very low prices that affected the profitability of the dairy businesses in India, it did not take long before the dairy farmers came together to create the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation and AMUL (Anand Milk Union Limited) (Agriculture Institute, 2025).

Through these dairy cooperatives, the dairy farmers were linked directly to the milk processing plants that paid better prices, while also offering better veterinary services and animal feeds. It was the establishment of the Gujarat Cooperative Milk Marketing Federation and AMUL cooperative that transformed milk production in India into one of the world’s largest milk producers. This not only instigated what became known in India as the “White Revolution”, but also “Operation Flood” that used agricultural cooperatives to create millions of jobs and transform rural economies into the vibrantly performing rural economies. However, not all agricultural cooperatives can influence radical economic change and transformation unless it is integrated with the observance of the criteria for establishing an effective agricultural cooperative union. Principle of commonality requires all the selected farmers to be dedicated to the farming and production of the designated agricultural products (Agriculture Institute, 2025).

If the agricultural cooperative is for goat farmers in a particular area, pineapple growers or the dairy farmers in a particular area, then it should be for that specific purpose. Mixing different types of agricultural production activities, unless they are interrelated, creates confusion that affects the cohesion of the agricultural cooperative. Subsequently, this can cause the failure of the agricultural cooperative. When Farmland Industries in the United States over-diversified, it did not take long before it failed and filed for bankruptcy in 2002. Established in 1929, Farmland Industries was created to enable farmers procure cheaper oil, agricultural inputs and fuel during periods of economic distress. It also aimed to improve the farmers’ bargaining power to resist exploitation by most US monopolies. Farmland Industries sought to improve its vertical integration and linkages with mainstream suppliers like manufacturers, refineries and pipelines so as to prevent over-reliance on external suppliers. Farmland Industries focused on livestock marketing, grain processing and fertilizers’ production. Initially, Farmland Industries grew exponentially to attract the membership of over 600,000 farmers and ranchers. However, when it started over-diversifying, problems arose to affect its business focus and sustainability. It is through these initiatives that Africa will be able to deal with the challenges of farmland shortages, agribusiness models’ reform and the 2030s’ politicization of population explosion’s dynamics, food security and hunger. Farmland Industries diversified into the accomplishment of non-core business activities like petroleum refining, meat packing and other international ventures. This instigated diseconomies that distorted its business focus. In this process, the fertilizers market in the US collapsed, while energy prices surged.

Costs increased yet Farmland Industries was not generating a lot of sales (Palmer, 2002). This affected its financial viability. With time, Farmland Industries attempted to refocus its business direction, but it failed to effectively respond to new needs of the farmers. This instigated the farmers’ loss of trust and confidence in Farmland Industries. With time, the concoction of all these problems caused Farmland Industries’ failure as it finally filed for bankruptcy in 2002. Farmland Industries’ failure implies that in addition to the commonality principle, the establishment of an agricultural cooperative must also adhere to the principle of market alignment and business viability. Agricultural cooperative must be created and established to promote the production of agricultural product that sells. If the product sells and there is a wider demand for the product, it promotes the business viability and sustainability of the agricultural cooperative. Business viability implies that with time, the agricultural cooperative can be able to generate adequate financial revenues and reduce dependence on government for funding (Agriculture Institute, 2025). Business viability motivates the other farmers to consider joining the established agricultural cooperative. If the farmers feel that they will do better after joining the agricultural cooperative, they can be more willing to join as compared to if there are limited possibilities for making money. More members improve the revenue that the agricultural cooperative generates from members to improve its financial sustainability.

Value-addition is the other principle that requires the agricultural cooperatives to not just invest in the product and sale of unprocessed agricultural products. Instead, it suggests that to gain financial mileage, agricultural cooperatives must focus on adding values by engaging in the processing and packaging of the harvested agricultural products (Agriculture Institute, 2025). Value-addition improves on the ability of the agricultural cooperatives to earn even more from their agricultural produce. However, for agricultural cooperatives to achieve the best results, a clear well-functioning governance system must be put in place. This improves the effective management and governance of the agricultural cooperatives. As it is often the case in Africa, the governance system should not be established only during planting or harvesting. Instead, it must be functional all the time to aid the effective diagnosis and response to all needs affecting the farmers (Agriculture Institute, 2025). In the United States, it was poor governance that caused the failure of Tri-Valley Growers. Tri-Valley Growers was a California-based cooperative that focused on fruit and vegetable canning. It focused on processing peaches, olives and tomatoes (Himawan & Sexton, 2009). However, its payment system was flawed to affect the satisfaction of the farmers. Instead of the immediate market prices, Tri-Valley Growers paid its farmers on the basis of long-term averages. When the market prices for canned food declined quite significantly, it became difficult for Tri-Valley Growers to pay its farmers the prices it could no longer afford. This affected the trust and confidence that farmers had in Tri-Valley Growers. These market and operational complexities were exacerbated by the increasing failure to withstand competition from the major frozen food players like Del Monte. Combined with the falsification of accounting reports to hide the actual depth of its financial troubles, Tri-Valley Growers failed to survive and filed for bankruptcy in the year 2000. Nonetheless, these are reflections on some of the changes on the agricultural production approaches and systems as well as agribusiness transformations that most African governments need to consider adopting in order to respond to the increasing unwarranted politics of the dynamics of Africa’s surging population growth, food security and hunger.

Citation: Africa: Farmland Shortages, Agribusiness Models and 2030s’ Politicization of Population Explosion, Food Shortages and Hunger. London: Elicitor.

Further readings

African Development Bank Group. (2026). Desertification and land degradation in Africa. https://www.afdb.org/en/topics-and-sectors/topics/desertification-and-land-degradation-africa

Agriculture Institute. (2025a). AMUL: A model of cooperative success in dairy industry. https://agriculture.institute/cooperative-and-farmers-organizations/amul-cooperative-success-dairy-industry/

Agriculture Institute. (2025b). Strategies for building successful cooperatives. https://agriculture.institute/cooperative-and-farmers-organizations/strategies-for-successful-cooperatives/

Collins, L. (2025). Unilever secures food future by backing smallholder farmers. Food Digital. https://fooddigital.com/news/unilever-building-resilient-supply-chains

EuroStat. (2026). Population projections in the EU: Statistics Explained. https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/SEPDF/cache/44711.pdf?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Himawan, H., & Sexton, R. J. (2009). The rise and fall of Tri Valley Growers Cooperative. https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/56923/?ln=en&v=pdf

Hogeland, J. (2006). The economic culture of U.S. agricultural cooperatives. Culture & Agriculture, 28(2), 67–79. https://doi.org/10.1525/cag.2006.28.2.67

Jessen, J. (2026). Unilever: Sustainable farming for resilient supply chains. Sustainability Magazine. https://sustainabilitymag.com/news/unilever-building-resilient-supply-chains

Katz, D., & Kahn, R. L. (1966). The social psychology of organizations. Wiley.

Kitunzi, Y. (2026). Why Uganda is eating more imported rice. Daily Monitor. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/magazines/farming/why-uganda-is-eating-more-imported-rice-5550646

Mintzberg, H., & Waters, J. A. (1985). Of strategies, deliberate and emergent. Strategic Management Journal, 6(3), 257–272. https://sms.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/smj.4250060306

Munch, D. (2026). The crucial role of farmer cooperatives and why active participation matters. American Farm Bureau Federation. https://www.fb.org/intel/markets/the-crucial-role-of-farmer-cooperatives-and-why-active-participation-matters

Nalubega, F. (2023). Heifer Uganda and young oilseed farmers improve income, food security. Heifer International. https://www.heifer.org/blog/heifer-uganda-and-young-oilseed-farmers-improve-income-food-security.html

Nestlé. (2026a). Contract farming scheme: Traditional red rice. https://www.nestle.com.my/csv/case-studies/farming-traditional-rice

Nestlé. (2026b). The Nestlé Milk Plan. https://www.nestle-confectionery.co.uk/sustainability/milk-plan

Palmer, E. (2002). Farmland loses $190 million. Institute for Agriculture and Trade Policy. https://www.iatp.org/news/farmland-loses-190-million

Shah, D. (2016). Synthesis of agribusiness success models under co-operative and private sector in India. SSRN. https://ssrn.com/abstract=2885224

The Conversation. (2024, June 3). Nearly 25% of land in Africa has been damaged—what’s to blame, and what can be done. https://theconversation.com/nearly-25-of-land-in-africa-has-been-damaged-whats-to-blame-and-what-can-be-done-231315

United Nations. (1992). 27 principles of the 1992 Rio Declaration on environment and sustainable development. https://icsid.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/parties_publications/C8394/Respondent%27s_documents/RL%20-%20Legal%20Authorities/RL-0150-ENG%201992-06-13.pdf

Von Bertalanffy, L. (1950). General system theory: Foundations, development, applications. George Braziller.

World Bank. (2026). World Bank Data on Population Growth (annual %) – European Union. https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP.GROW?locations=EU&utm_source=chatgpt.com

Zamchiya, P., & Rusere, C. (2026). Land availability and land-use changes in Africa. UWC-PLAAS. https://plaas.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/UWC-PLAAS-Land-Use-Report-2025.pdf