By
Boniface Okanga
London-England, 29 January, 2026
In Uganda’s post-election era, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the current UPDF Chief of Defence Forces, has emerged as one of the most influential figures in Ugandan politics. Muhoozi’s handling of election security and post-election stability was, and is still, superb. It surprised many, as most Ugandans had for the reasons best known to them, expected the elections to turn chaotic and violent, even to overwhelm security agencies. But all these were seamlessly averted. Such superb performance has left Muhoozi with a very high rating among the population as well as the Ugandan, East African and African security circles. With even some commenters reiterating that he is a co-president, Muhoozi will play more instrumental roles that will not only shape and reshape the nature of the Ugandan political terrain, but also the African political dynamics for a very long time. Of all the East African countries, Uganda has been playing more leading roles in regional politics to improve stability, regional integration, security and economic progress. While handling and managing issues like the refugee crisis, cross-border trade, terrorism, human trafficking and immigration, Uganda has also been playing leading roles that create socio-economic structures and systems for improving Africa’s economic prosperity. As Uganda continues to play such roles, Muhoozi, who has emerged at the forefront of Uganda’s leadership, and as the public say, the co-president because of his organized ways of doing things, will certainly take a more central instrumental role to influence a range of different political and socio-economic policies and activities across the African continent. But as he does that, the opposition politicians that think that they can use sanctions to limit his progress will be making a huge mistake. They will not only be making a mistake, but a big political blunder that will affect Uganda’s political, social, and economic progress for decades. It will also upset the overall regional security configuration and stability for a very long time. This will cause serious insecurity and economic uncertainties that even the actual architects of the sanctions themselves will vanish from, just in the same way Bobi Wine has now disappeared from his “Uganda Empyaa” and the so-called “One Soldier, One Citizen” axiom.
Given such obvious risks, the opposition politicians who are failing to make it in the local political terrain will need to decipher that the notion that sanctions are instrumental instruments for achieving the desired political change is not only a fallacy, but a double fallacy. Sanctions cannot influence political change in the direction that the opposition desires. Unfortunately, for the opposition politicians who are failing to make it in the local political terrain, sanctions have often been the easiest ways of trying to get to their political opponents. Sanctions have often been the easiest revenge tool to use. Fortunately, the US government, while aware of such tactics around the world, has also often been very cautious when issuing sanctions. Instead of easily issuing sanctions, the EU also uses a very cautious approach. The EU and US recognize the potential dangerous unintended consequences of sanctions. Instead of sanctions, the US and EU often give opportunities for negotiations and for the identified grievances to be addressed. Sanctions are used in very exceptional situations. False or fabricated allegations of human rights violations are never valid grounds for sanctions. Tendencies to fabricate and exaggerate a few errors causing minor human rights abuses are never valid grounds for sanctions. Tendencies of the opposition agents to ferment violence, crimes, unrest, and then turn around to accuse the government of witch hunts, persecutions, and abductions when asked to legally account, can never be valid grounds for sanctions. Curbing insecurities, crimes and controlling the population from engaging in violence is the core role of the state security agencies. Without that, the country is dead.
While aware of the risks of the weaponization of sanctions as a political tool, most Western powers are often very cautious and more calculative when issuing sanctions. If sanctions are just issued fwaaaa, then Donald Trump would have sanctioned South Africa a long time ago for the unverified allegations of “white genocide.” Donald Trump’s administration has been one of the toughest governments the United States has ever had, but it has also been very cautious while issuing sanctions. Only in exceptional situations is the use of sanctions considered. Otherwise, it is often avoided. It spoils bilateral relationships. It affects trade relationships. It destroys the economic systems of the target country. It exacerbates conflicts to worsen the state of political refugees and immigration crises around the world. It retards economic growth and investor trust and confidence. In case any little opportunities for negotiations were remaining, it even destroys such opportunities.
Yet, as the economic values of the country are destroyed, it is not only the local politicians who agitated for the sanctions that also suffer, but also the general population of the country. The notion that sanctions are instrumental instruments for achieving the desired political change is a fallacy. When the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) failed to dislodge Zimbabwe’s Robert Mugabe in the late 1990s and 2000s, it resorted to campaigns for the US to introduce sanctions. Even when there were still rooms for negotiations, MDC passionately urged the US to introduce sanctions. Even when MDC was aware that Mugabe was still winning elections due to the popular land reform programmes, it still agitated for sanctions. Even when it understood that sanctions would damage the economy, it still opted for sanctions as a revenge tool or even a political weapon aimed at weakening Mugabe’s government. Due to MDC’s aggressive campaigns, the US heeded the call for sanctions.
However, when it subsequently became difficult to dislodge Mugabe, undoing the extensive economic damages caused by sanctions became a difficult paradox. It even became a paradox that the late Morgan Tsvangirai went to heaven while still trying to resolve. After years of struggles and fights, MDC finally reached a power-sharing agreement with Robert Mugabe’s ZANU-PF. This was a good patriotic initiative from Morgan Tsvangirai. But still, the late Morgan Tsvangirai could not easily undo the economic damages of the sanctions (Zhangazha, 2014). Tsvangirai became the Prime Minister, and time had arrived for him to now play more instrumental roles of delivering the desired socio-economic services to the Zimbabweans. He could not easily do it. Sanctions had destroyed every aspect of the Zimbabwean economy. Sanctions should only be used in exceptional situations. They have regrettable unintended bad consequences. It destroys relationships. Even if the relationships between politicians or political parties are seemingly destroyed beyond repair, politicians must still be cautious when using sanctions. In fact, after agitating for sanctions, most ordinary Zimbabweans turned against MDC for advocating for sanctions that had caused lasting economic damages (Katsinde, 2022).
Even when ZANU-PF underwent self-reorganisation like an organism during Emmerson Mnangagwa’s takeover, it was still the economic regrets from the devastating economic effects of the sanctions that affected MDC’s rebirth and re-invigoration. Whether it is economic, financial, embargoes, diplomatic, or targeted individual sanctions, empirical facts from Eritrea, Sudan, and Burundi indicate that sanctions must be avoided in all possible ways. It closes the room for engagement and negotiations. Yet, as Sejusa, Uganda’s former Intelligence Chief, says, most of Uganda’s problems, with Besigye’s imprisonment inclusive, will be resolved through backroom negotiations and not street protests, insults and riots. Combined with Bobi Wine’s case, this implies that even if there are some issues, usage of sanctions should be the last of the last options or even not considered at all. In Sejusa’s words that emphasize the importance of negotiations, sanctions can be regarded as part of the street protests that will not solve anything. Instead, it may generate some unintended lethal consequences.
So far, Muhoozi, the UPDF Chief of Defence Forces, who has emerged after the recent elections as a very influential co-president or even a quasi-president, has vowed to counter sanctions with sanctions. If that happens, it will frustrate any ongoing negotiations for Besigye’s release. It will also complicate NUP’s operation and the overall nature of Uganda’s political terrain. Sanctioning key political figures is the poorest decision. It will close all rooms for negotiations. It will become quite disastrous for the political progress and evolution in this country. Instead of running to Washington for sanctions, the advocates of sanctions should have opted for a US or EU-appointed mediator if they think there is anything or crisis that needs resolving. Just like it happened with MDC, it’s not sanctions that will bring NUP to power.
Most NUP guys who are advocating for sanctions don’t even live in Uganda. Hence, they are sure they will not be affected by the devastating socio-economic effects of the sanctions. Sanctions, whether for targeted individuals, businesses, or general sanctions, are not good for the economy. From the Zimbabwean effects, where it was just Mugabe and a few ZANU-PF guys who were sanctioned, it’s evident that whether individual or general sanctions, the effects of sanctions still affect the health of the economy. If the health of the economy becomes bad as a result of sanctions, those who advocated for sanctions will leave for overseas countries. Those who are already overseas will cement their stay there. For you, who has a big family, you will not be able to go anywhere. You will move on foot if you are currently riding a motorcycle. If you are currently working, you will become jobless. If you are currently driving, you will downgrade to riding motorcycles (boda-bodas). If you used to have breakfast, break-tea, lunch, evening-tea, and supper, you will just have one meal. Don’t joke with sanctions. Go ask the Zimbabweans. MDC guys advocated for the sanctioning of Mugabe and some ZANU-PF guys and later regretted, regretted, and regretted. How do you sanction someone whom you are not sure as to when he or she will leave power? That is the problem and where the Zimbabweans found themselves. Opposition think that after sanctions, they can easily capture state power. But that will fail, and the process and effects will become even more complicated. That is what happened in Zimbabwe when MDC advocated for sanctions, thinking ZANU-PF would leave power just like that in the next year.
But two decades later, ZANU-PF is still there. Hence, even if your business was doing well, the compounding devastating effects of the sanctions will leave you without a business. You will actually become a refugee in South Sudan, the DRC, or even the Central African Republic that we currently despise. In contrast, Bobi Wine and Barbie will just join Solomon Kampala in their Texas homes or the Toronto home. Even if you have applied for asylum in the UK, US, and any other European country, your asylum application may even be rejected, leading to your deportation. Most countries are increasingly trying to avoid immigrants. At the height of the enforcement of the Zimbabwean sanctions in the 2000s, the Zimbabwean asylum seekers were still even rejected and deported from the UK, US, etc. Hence, if you think you are safe, think twice and cautiously. If you thought you would advocate for sanctions and then go work in Dubai and come back to invest your Dubai earnings in a vibrant Ugandan economy, you are mistaken. You will end up doing the slave work forever and forever because the sanctions that you are advocating for will have destroyed the Ugandan economy that you could have invested your hard-earned Dubai monies. Hence, your earnings from Saudi Arabia will be useless. In other words, the notion that sanctions induce the desired positive socio-economic effects is not only a fallacy, but even a double fallacy.
The likes of Kale Kayihura, Abel Kandiho, Anita Among, and others have been sanctioned, but Ugandans are yet to discern the values that have been attained from such sanctions. The mere fact that on the slightest provocation, one is already in Washington advocating for sanctions against fellow leaders sends the right message about what kinds of leaders they are. It sends the right message about what kinds of leaders they will be upon taking over power. The best leaders often exhaust all the internal options. Uganda has Inter-Religious Councils and several other elder statesmen and key forums that can be created for dialogueing if there are challenges. Even just as the head of the family, it sends a wrong message if on the slightest misunderstanding, you are already in your neighbourhood asking for neighbours to intervene. It sends a wrong signal about your abilities as the head of the family. Remember, some neighbours are not often very merciful. They can take advantage of your leadership incapabilities. The notion that sanctions are instrumental instruments for achieving the desired political change is a fallacy.
Negotiations and Not Sanctions’ Weaponization
During the struggles in South Africa, several sanctions were introduced, but the white-led government never ended. It remained in power for several years. And when the time for change came, it was not a series of sanctions that were brought in as exhibits. Instead, it was just simple negotiations and agreements that just took a few months to solve a problem that had been haunting South Africans for centuries. Hence, if anyone thinks sanctions are the best way forward, there is the way to Washington. The route to Washington is quite large and open. And good luck. Top patriotic politicians never opt for sanctions against fellow politicians. They always leave room for negotiations. As the Kenyans always say, in politics, “there are no permanent enemies or friends”. “Your friend of today can become your enemy of tomorrow, and your enemies of today can become your friends and allies of tomorrow”. Top patriotic politicians understand that sanctions cannot easily turn into a weapon for taking over power. Top patriotic politicians understand that the notion that sanctions are critical instrumental instruments for taking over state power is a fallacy.
Starting from the days of Moi, as commanded by Biwot, dubbed as “Total Man”, the late Raila Odinga had extensive disagreements with most Kenyan governments, but he never opted for sanctions. Raila never used sanctions. In Zambia, Frederick Chiluba gave Kenneth Kaunda a lot of headaches, just as Kenneth Kaunda also did the same to him, but sanctions were not part of the arsenal used. In Malawi, despite extensive disagreements of the opposition with the Kamuzu Banda government, sanctions never came in. In Nigeria, there were disagreements and disagreements as the likes of Ibrahim Babangida ruled, but the use of sanctions did not feature quite prominently. Smarter politicians will always leave room for negotiations. Even just our Besigye here, despite being in the opposition trenches since 2001, the use of sanctions was never part of his tools.
But, let’s not say while using the “small brain” approach; instead, let’s say while misinformed and seeking to be “politically over-smart or clever”, some of the recent Ugandan politicians like NUP think it’s through sanctions that one comes into power. They are agitating for sanctions for everybody. They are even about to agitate for sanctions against just the OC of the Police Station or even just the village LC1. Instead of building and improving NUP structures, they are running to Washington for sanctions. They think that through sanctions, they can capture state power. They don’t decipher that the notion that sanctions are critical instrumental instruments for taking over state power is a fallacy. Unfortunately, by the time they realize it, it will be too late. Sanctions can make you take power and give it to someone else. By the way, that someone else , can even be a wrong person. And then regrets, regrets, and regrets will set in, but without options of how the situation can be reversed.
NUP and its agents fail to remember that when Omar Al-Bashir was sanctioned and subsequently lost power, it was not the guys who advocated for sanctions or the opposition that took over power. Instead, power just shifted to the military. Even in the recent Venezuelan incident, the US never handed over power to the opposition as led by Maria Corina Machado, who had been requesting and agitating for sanctions. Instead, it was Delcy Rodriguez, the Vice President, who was signaled to take over. Hence, instead of sanctions, opt for negotiations. Leave room open for negotiations. Even if there are no rooms for negotiations, create one and leave that room open. Time will come when you will need it. Just as Semujju Nganda says, if you need to take over political power, you need to be talking and engaging everybody, including even Satan. Unfortunately, when sanctions are in, it’s not possible to talk anymore to everybody. And that will limit NUP’s political progress.
During this election, the actual truth on the ground is that NUP did very well in terms of improving its mobilization capabilities. Even Bobi Wine is now speaking better. Bobi Wine even now understands some aspects of Uganda’s economy—GDP, inflation, etc. That is good. But in that process, NUP never did well to win the election. It had, and still has, a lot of structural and mobilization deficiencies outside Buganda.
NUP’s Structural and Mobilization Deficiencies outside Buganda
Even if the presidential candidate is popular, it’s often still the parliamentary candidates and the candidates for local council elections that do the on-the-ground mobilization work for the presidential candidate. Combined with the local party structure, the case from NRM indicates that it improves the presidential candidate’s performance. However, NUP did not have these across the country. It did not even fill candidates for all the parliamentary and local council positions across the country. Hence, as NRM had more powerful mobilization machinery in upcountry, structural and mobilization deficiencies were still NUP’s major impediments. Combined with the stronger tribal sentiments that operated against Bobi Wine—the NUP candidate—in some regions, the fact that Museveni could just get block votes from such regions to win the elections was just a matter of time.
If NUP needs to capture state power, those are the things that it will need to work on. Instead of running to Washington and Brussels for sanctions, those are the things that NUP must address if it is to win the 2031 elections. They need to understand that the notion that sanctions are critical instrumental instruments for taking over state power is a fallacy. People say Buganda is NUP’s stronghold. Yes, it’s true according to the 2021 election results. But that is no longer the case. Why? When Bobi Wine led NUP to become the leading opposition in 2021, he gained an unmanageable pride. This pride made him convert himself into some sort of a demi-god in Buganda’s politics. He not only disagreed, but also disrespected and humiliated some top Buganda politicians. He did not heed their advice, and neither did he try to find out why most top Buganda political players were doing things in the way they were doing.
Not only in African culture, but even in the American political life, it’s difficult to sail through if the candidate does not respect the older players. Before Donald Trump became the current United States’ Donald Trump, he was, for a long time, a key financier for most of the past US presidential candidates, including even Bill Clinton. This enabled Trump to cultivate a good positive relationship with most of the past presidential households. Likewise, Barack Obama was introduced by John Kerry and endorsed by a lot of past American political historicals. In contrast, Bobi Wine was not introduced by any elder or mentor into Ugandan politics. This makes him have the problems of acceptability amongst the group of political elders. It is a mistake for Bobi Wine to think that it was possible to bypass elders and succeed even without the political elders’ blessings.
Like I said before, that the agitators for sanctions don’t leave room for negotiations, Bobi Wine never left room for negotiations. He ashamed, humiliated, and disrespected some historicals that could have been quite instrumental for influencing his success in Buganda politics.
Buganda Political Elders’ Disrespect
Some historical players from Buganda begged for NUP flags during candidates’ selection, but Bobi Wine kept a deaf ear. In a silent retaliation, all these underlying dynamics and humiliations started to quietly play out against Bobi Wine’s political aspirations. Mpuuga’s Democratic Front came up just like Mubarak Munyagwa’s Common Man’s Party and Mohammed Nsereko’s Ecological Party of Uganda. Combined with the internal fights, conflicts, and dissatisfactions with Bobi Wine’s deliberate sale of NUP tickets for even as high as 300 million Uganda Shillings, a figure that most Ugandans could not afford, NUP put up a campaign face like all was fine, but it wasn’t. The results of this deceptive branding and marketing technique were depicted in the resounding silence that echoed in the evenings of 15th January 2026 when polling stations started declaring results.
Hence, instead of running to Washington for sanctions, those are the things that NUP needs to sort out. Instead of coming up with new players and integrating and assimilating the old players to build a stronger political coalition, Bobi Wine instead came up with new players and disintegrated the older experienced players. This left him more vulnerable. And that weakness not only manifested itself in the poor handling of the historical Buganda politicians, but also in the way Bobi Wine and his team related to some powerful historical institutions like the Buganda Kingdom and the Catholic Church. These institutions are supposed to be neutral political players. However, they can be very dangerous underground players if dissatisfied.
For that reason, it is not surprising that the Buganda Kingdom became lukewarm when Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro—Bobi Wine’s right-hand man and NUP’s Deputy Spokesman—threatened the Buganda Kingdom and revealed the potential NUP’s future plans to abolish Kingdoms. This was a humiliation that prompted the Kingdom to review its relationship with NUP. The Kingdom was part of the system that brought NRA to power, and it became the Kingdom because of the NRA. Hence, they are most likely to be very cautious in the way they deal with any other political party going into the future. If NUP is therefore serious about becoming a government, it’s the Buganda Kingdom, which is one of the important players that it must be talking to. Instead of running to Washington for sanctions, it is the Kingdom which it must be apologizing to for Alex Waiswa Mufumbiro’s kinds of statements.
With all these dynamics, it is not surprising that NRM regained its ground in the Buganda region. Ever since Museveni lost most parliamentary constituencies in Buganda in 2021, he had been fighting like a wounded lion to regain control of Buganda. Several billions were sunk into SACCOs, PDMs, and Emyooga (Zirimenya, S. (2026) – How NUP lost Buganda and NRM Took It Back). Combined with the heightened mobilization capabilities and the reworking of the “Buganda for Museveni” strategy, this paid back on the 15th of January. Even before the voting day, it was easily evident towards the end of the campaigns that the political tides were changing in favour of Museveni. Museveni’s crowds started exceeding those of Bobi Wine’s.
Bobi Wine first rocked Kawempe, Kasangati, Nakawa, etc., and left for upcountry. But as he did that, Museveni’s entry into the Buganda region towards the end of the campaigns started undoing a lot of Bobi Wine’s messages of change. Extensive meetings with mechanics’ associations, traders, taxi drivers, etc., paid up. By the time the voting day came up, Bobi Wine was almost alone. But he did not know that he was alone until he was actually alone and in hiding. Ugandans often say, “If you are serious in Uganda, you are serious alone.” That is where Bobi Wine found himself as most voters voted and left the polling stations for home as had been directed by the security agencies. Even now, Bobi Wine is unreachable, and NUP’s direction is lost and uncertain.
While conversing with a few NUP supporters, some reckon that “NUP is now dead”. But instead of offering leadership and direction, a rift has reportedly broken out between Ssenyonyi—the Leader of the Opposition—and Rubongoya—the NUP Secretary General. To add salt to the wound, it’s said during campaigns, Rubongoya campaigned and voted for Beatrice Mao—the DP mayoral candidate—instead of Balimwezo—the NUP mayoral candidate (Nambi, 2026; Nambi, 2025). So, if the senior party leaders are even campaigning for other parties, it increases doubt about NUP’s allegation of being rigged out. Towards the conclusion of the campaigns, a brief survey indicated a lot of increasing support for NRM. But because of intimidation by a few NUP hooligans and criminals who made a lot of noise and used criminal activities as weapons against non-NUP supporters to make NUP appear as popular yet it was not, most NRM supporters pretended to be NUP. This affected the capability of NUP to accurately evaluate and understand its strengths and weaknesses.
Crimes’ Weaponization Against Non-NUP Supporters
These criminal activities caused a lot of fear, mayhem, anxiety, and confusion in some neighbourhoods. Combined with the increasing attacks on state security personnel and the eroded fear of the security forces, these created a lot of insecurity (Omara, 2025; Akullu, 2025). With insecurity risks heightened, the security agencies responded by making a few arrests and apprehensions. And it is such arrests which have been rebranded by NUP as human rights abuses. In public places, especially around Kampala, it was not uncommon to hear boda-bodas (those using motorcycles as taxis) assuring each other that in Uganda Empyaa, “uja kulaba”, which is a sort of a threat meaning that “you will see in the new Uganda led by Bobi Wine”. In some slums and very populated areas, crime was weaponized as a political tool against non-NUP supporters and non-Baganda. While all these unfolded, most people left the surrounding areas and neighbourhoods of the city for fear that deadly violence would erupt on the polling day. Even if they were registered in those areas, they still left to hide in the villages where they had not registered. This explains the whooping 10 million voters that the Electoral Commission insinuated to have absconded from voting or who did not show up for voting. Even when they threatened violence and riots on the polling day, NUP agents expected the security agencies to fold their arms and relax. Even when some NUP supporters attacked and injured some policemen, NUP expected the security agencies to keep quiet and relax. Even when NUP hooligans attacked some civilians, NUP expected the security forces to look the other way.
When genocide broke out in Rwanda in 1994, those who were there and those that have done research on the Rwandan genocide will tell you that it was not the police officers and soldiers who were at the forefront. Instead, it’s the civilian political mobilizers and agents that formed the Interahamwe. The Interahamwe was a paramilitary group constituting of the youth-wing of Rwanda’s MRND, which was Juvenal Habyarimana’s ruling political party at the time. In the later stages, Interahamwe then worked in conjunction with some security personnel to further execute the genocide while heightening the overall state of insecurity in Rwanda at the time (Lawal, 2024). The same also applies to the formation of Burundi’s Imbonerakure-the militia group, which in Kirundi, means “Those Who See Far”. Hence, when NUP started uttering some words and acting in a particular way, there was a need for swift actions from the security agencies to put the situation under control.
To make matters worse, Bobi Wine worsened the situation when he came up with the arithmetic formula that the 49 million population of Uganda would easily overpower the Ugandan army or security agencies. As President Museveni cautioned him against using such reckless statements, Bobi Wine still insisted and advised citizens to take the law into their hands and attack the security forces if he loses. Especially in the central region, this was the state of mind that NUP, NRM and the entire country went with into the polling stations. The mindset of NUP was that “we shall attack”. For NRM was-“we shall defend ourselves” or even stay away from the polling stations. However, when it increasingly became apparent that the security agencies, led by General Muhoozi Kainerugaba, the graduate of the globally prestigious Sandhurst Military Academy, was on top of the security game, nobody understands how the previously noisy NUP “hooligans” suddenly became silent. When it became apparent that Muhoozi and his security teams were quite ahead of NUP’s plan to launch riots and disrupt the security of the country, nobody knows how NUP lost its political axiom of “One Citizen One Soldier” strategy.
NUP’s plan was to defy security, stay at the polling stations, confront and fight with security even before the completion of vote counting, so as to instigate grounds for deadly riots. But this was foiled. As NUP lost the elections and its strategy of seeking to riot and take over power by force, it has resorted to playing the victim card. When candidates and campaign agents stick with the campaigns as prescribed by the electoral laws, it raises no issues. However, if the campaigns are coated with political rhetorics that seek to use other alternative means, it raises issues that attract the security’s attention. And that is what happened here. All will stabilize. But NUP will need to recognize that once it says “One Citizen One Soldier”, it must stand by that statement when the security agencies retaliate. There is no need of running to Washington for sanctions. Stand by that statement. Instead of running to Washington to request for sanctions, NUP must stand and defend its statement. NUP needs to build and improve its structure and stronger presence in regions outside its current so-called central region stronghold. It needs to improve its networking and better relationship with the population outside these strongholds.
Despite a few incidents of violence, crime, and tensions that the security agencies subdued, the elections were peaceful. The elections were peaceful to the extent that it even disappointed some international media figures like CNN’s Larry Madowo, BBC and Sky News that expected the worst. Of all these, it was CNN’s Larry Madowo who was the most disappointed to the extent that he resorted to writing and posting more childish things due to the lack of news from the elections. From Larry’s behaviour, he had jetted into Uganda expecting the worst so that he could feel happy, nice and excited reporting a very bad situation or a crisis live from Uganda. He had expected the election to turn violent to create news that he would report live as women and children crossed the Malaba River into Kenya for refuge. He had expected Kampala to burn so that he could stand in the middle of flames and report live from the burning Kampala. He had expected Kampala streets to be littered with burning protest tyres, dead bodies, and the wounded. But all these did not happen.
By the next day, on the 16th of January, it was clear that Museveni was winning and everything was peaceful. It was also clear that Bobi Wine had vanished and everything was still peaceful. With all these lack of “newses”, Larry Madowo had nothing to do but also to disappear. But as talented as always, he instead turned to also become innovative and start inventing and posting non-political news—like-is it what what-a “Ugandan girl who wants to be his girlfriend…” hahahaha. Despite a few incidents, the African Union observers led by Goodluck Jonathan, the former Nigerian president had also insinuated the elections to have concluded peacefully. The negativities created about the Ugandan elections were all because of deceptive marketing, disinformation, misinformation, and fake news created by the increasingly tech-savvy social media players from NUP.
NUP’s Deceptive Marketing, Disinformation, Misinformation and Fake News
Deliberate use of misinformation, fake news, and disinformation is a problem not only affecting the Ugandan democracy, but even the other democracies around the world. Commissioned by the European Union (EU), the study by Colomina, Sánchez and Youngs (2021) on misinformation and fake news in the European Union states found misinformation and fake news to be a problem affecting the relay of the accurate information to the electorates during different processes of democratic dispensations. Based on the techniques of deception, the findings of such a study were found to be consonant with the results of Broda and Strömbäck’s (2024) study that insinuates deliberate misinformation to be a problem affecting most of the contemporary global democracies. Such insights were echoed by Okanga (2025) who noted that unless the problems of fake news, misinformation and disinformation are tackled and diffused, they may affect the effective optimization of the modern e-government technologies to leverage the effectiveness of e-democracy in the 21st century. In summation, Colomina et al., (2021) lamented in the study’s abstract that:
“Around the world, disinformation is spreading and becoming a more complex phenomenon based on emerging techniques of deception. Disinformation undermines human rights and many elements of good quality democracy; but counter-disinformation measures can also have a prejudicial impact on human rights and democracy. COVID-19 compounds both these dynamics and has unleashed more intense waves of disinformation, allied to human rights and democracy setbacks. Effective responses to disinformation are needed at multiple levels, including formal laws and regulations, corporate measures, and civil society action. While the EU has begun to tackle disinformation in its external actions, it has scope to place greater stress on the human rights dimension of this challenge. In doing so, the EU can draw upon best practice examples from around the world that tackle disinformation through a human rights lens. This study proposes steps the EU can take to build counter-disinformation more seamlessly into its global human rights and democracy policies”.
However, despite such lamentations, deliberate use of misinformation, deceptive marketing, fake news and disinformation was still one of the strategies that NUP cherished its utilization in the recently concluded 2026 elections. The results were the information which was not true. The trend is still continuing as NUP reports normal formal arrests by security agencies as abductions. The security agencies have the leads and information on the planners of riots. And it’s those planners who are being arrested, not abducted, as NUP says to attract global sympathy. Nonetheless, from disinformation and misinformation, the consequences were the portrayal of NUP as very popular across the country, whereas the actual realities signified that it was not. With all these social media negativities, the Uganda elections that the world knew were different from the Uganda elections that the Ugandans who live in Uganda had physically participated in. The Uganda that Ugandans live in is very peaceful and had peaceful elections, despite the bitter contests by different parties just like the political activities in any other parts of the world.
Given these deceptive marketing, disinformation, misinformation, and fake news, one gets to understand how the US senator became concerned and raised issues about sanctions. Using social media information as the basis for making very important international policy decisions is quite dangerous in the modern age of disinformation and misinformation. Before making important international policy decisions, international players must create the fact-finding or fact-checking team that visits the country of concern to ascertain the truth. Compared to the other elections, Uganda’s 2026 elections were the most peaceful. Even with limited networking, creation of the appropriate structures across the country, and mobilization, NUP and some opposition political parties in Africa assume deceptive marketing and misinformation will swerve voters. Because of the power of social media, deceptive marketing, disinformation, misinformation and use of fake news, as Donald Trump noted, can make opposition appear to be doing miracles than the realities on the ground. Use of more deceptive marketing and campaign tactics as well as artificial intelligence, machine learning and deep learning technologies can make any campaigns, whether by government or opposition, appear to be doing wonders when actually not doing anything. This is where NUP found itself.
NUP, with its talented digital marketers, was on top of its social media game. Even without any proper mobilization structures on the ground in remote areas and villages of the country, it projected the image to the international community that it was doing wonders. Quite often, the presidential candidate may have some charisma. But most mobilization and creation of local structures at the local levels are done by the local political leaders. In NUP, this was the problem. Instead of local candidates mobilizing the population, all of them were waiting for Bobi Wine to come and do it for them. And once Bobi Wine came, campaigned, and went, that was it. Most of the candidates assumed that it was a done deal once endorsed by Bobi Wine. Even Bobi Wine’s centralized initiative created and inculcated that thinking. The thinking was that “pay your money, I endorse you, and you are sure of making it even if you are not good in politics like Busiro East’s Walukaga”. Hence, after the visit and introduction by Bobi Wine, that was it. The parliamentary candidates would go off. Some would take a more relaxed door-to-door approach, as most of them spent most of the campaign periods moving with Bobi Wine to different parts of the country. When they did that, it created a disconnect between the candidates and the voters. It is such a gap that the resourceful Museveni’s NRM used to keep talking and doing one-on-one meetings with the population.
By the time they realized the error, it was at eight p.m. of the 15th of January 2026 when vote counting at different polling stations were about to be completed. It was about eight p.m. in the evening of Ugandan time on the 15th of January 2026 that NUP recognized that something was amiss with the strategy they had used. For presidential and parliamentary elections, it’s often at that time that the counting is over. It’s often at that time that voters who are still hovering around the polling stations are able to easily discern whether or not the candidates they voted for are most likely to go through. Even if the counting is not yet over, the mood often becomes jovial. The mood often becomes exhilarating and punctuated with a lot of ululations for the voters who have reached a more logical conclusion that “come rain or sunshine”, their candidate of choice will go through.
For all the past elections, these have often been the case and the nature of the activities at most polling stations. But this time, this was not the case. It wasn’t the case. Votes trickled in and the voters were disappointed. Disappointed by who? By themselves. They had voted for other candidates. According to the Ugandan electoral laws and systems, after voting, the votes are counted and declared there and then at the polling stations in front of the polling agents and other voters who manage to keep around. Hence, as voting ended and counting unfolded in most polling stations around Kampala, the Ugandan capital, the more Kampala became silent. The more they counted more votes in most areas around Kampala, the more many voters headed home in silence.
What happened? NUP had over-marketed and created euphoria that 15th January is the day that voters would enter Uganda Empya (New Uganda). That, however, turned out not to be the case. NUP lost. NUP is a relatively newer opposition political party in the Uganda political block. It does not have adequate mobilization structures across the country like its resourceful NRM. Even just FDC used to have better widespread structures across the country. This explains why as compared to NUP’s relatively homogenous MPs from just Buganda, FDC used to have a heterogeneous composition of its MPs almost from different parts of the country. But even with such structural deficiencies, NUP still created the euphoria as well as false hope and belief among the relatively younger population that 15 January is for Uganda Empyaa. Now that it’s Museveni, as co-presidented by Muhoozi, that will be the ones to drive Uganda Empyaa up to 2031, NUP needs to focus on building more structures and networks across the country.
Muhoozi–Uganda’s Co-President and the Future
Instead of fabricating allegations and going to Washington for sanctions, NUP needs to build and improve better systems for countering Muhoozi’s increasing adoption of more superior operational approaches and methods. Despite the threatening chaos and violence, Muhoozi emerged on top of the security and safety game for the country. This election turned out to be the most peaceful election because of a good security strategy. Without a proper security strategy, it could also have easily turned into the most violent election—killing multitudes of people and destroying property to the magnitude and scale it has never been experienced in Uganda’s election history. NUP supporters were or are even still prepared to cause mayhem. However, as they prepared, it seems the security agencies were also constantly prepared and ahead. Thus, the smooth and seamless conclusion of the recently concluded elections has demonstrated Muhoozi’s superior organisational capabilities. In public administration, Duffy’s (2025) elucidation implies organisational capability is the strategic initiative of creating, integrating and configuring a network of different core and non-core organisational competencies to create a system that aids the seamless creation and delivery of the required socio-economic services.
Organisational capability is also explicated by Boatman (2025) to connote the process of using a bundle of tangible and intangible capabilities to create and deliver values in the way that cannot easily be replicated by rivals. It is the strategic process of creating a system that creates and delivers more unique socio-economic values in the way that cannot be easily replicated by enemies. In the context of Muhoozi’s handling of security, this has not only improved the confidence and trust that Ugandans have in him, but also highlighted some unique values about him in regard to organisational capabilities as well as the seamless management of the safety and security of the country. Better organisational capabilities are not only good for effective security management, but also for creating better systems that enhance the seamless creation and delivery of the other required socio-economic services to the population. Whether one is in the opposition or not, it’s the security and safety of everyone in the country that comes first. And once the citizens have that confidence and trust, all the rest in terms of economic progress and prosperity will easily follow. Within minutes, elections were done without any major security issues, and the people were back to work. Compared to Museveni, the way things are unfolding, it seems Muhoozi is even smarter.
Under Muhoozi’s presidency, it seems Ugandans will even get better things than they got before. And that will be trouble for NUP unless it does better to counter such values with even more unique values. Now, with a highly disciplined UPDF, corruption-free UPDF, better security governance system, superior control of the country’s security and safety, as well as his well-known genuine dislike for corruption, it’s better for NUP to move in and strengthen its capacity before Ugandans can discover more good values about Muhoozi. Despite being influential and powerful, Muhoozi has not abused his powers to go on the land grabbing spree like the other powerful figures. Neither has he ever been involved in any corruption incidents. Instead he is a big hater of corruption. Therefore if the donors from the west want the president that can put their monies into good use, Muhoozi is certainly the answer. If the victims of land grabbing in mostly central regions want their grievances resolved and settled, Muhoozi is the answer. With even more unique operational philosophy and values, Muhoozi is almost the better placed internal figure for handling NRM’s internal reforms. Compared to some figures that would come and do the same things that NRM has done for years, Muhoozi’s introduction of new operational philosophies and values would ignite the NRM’s organisational re-organisation, re-birth, re-generation and re-invigoration for it to create and deliver the previously unthinkable novel values that not only respond, but even surpass the changing modern generational needs and preferences.
Leadership for the country is not pursued fwaaa and in a spontaneous random way. One must have some unique values, dreams and vision to share with the country. When Colin Powell dropped out of the US presidential race in 1995, he cited lack of internal drive, which is generally lack of a new unique vision and ideological disconnect with the GOP, as the reasons for refusing nominations. Despite being popular, he told the Americans that he felt he did not have any unique dreams or new thinking and philosophies to share with America. In the Washington Post Article, Woodward (2021) clarified that “Republicans saw Colin Powell as their presidential savior in 1996. But he couldn’t see himself that way”. This demonstrates how lack of inner feelings, vision and unique philosophy can affect leadership quests. It contrasts with Africa, where politicians just emerge from nowhere, or even from the maruwa pot or from drinking “umqombothi”, and then declare, “I am contesting for president,” even without any vision. Once a leader has unique dreams and vision, it sets the path for the country to do even better. It drives the leader’s change, transformation, and progress, while also influencing the change and transformation of the larger organisation in the way that creates the best values for the greatest good and number of the population. Because of new thinking and approaches, this utilitarianism argument implies the country can become different when they take over. Visionary leaders introduce new insights, new thinking, and ways of doing things that create and deliver the previously unimaginable novel values for the country.
George Bush Jr. had a different vision of improving clean energy technology and reducing the American dependence on Arab oil. That vision instigated the creation of electric vehicles. Barack Obama’s vision led to the creation of affordable care. Donald Trump believes America had gone down, and his unique vision is to “Make America Great Again”. With such a philosophy, attacking Venezuela, Greenland, or Iran is not a problem because it’s part of the vision of “Making America Great Again”. Unique vision is the driver of a leader’s effective performance. And this effective performance drives the organisation’s success. If that organisation is a country, it also drives the country’s progress and prosperity. Once the leader has a unique vision and values that he or she cherishes, it drives all the other leadership quests and subsequently superior organisational performance. Muhoozi has so far proved that he has that unique dream and vision of what Uganda as a country ought to be or not to be. With the vision of what Uganda ought to be or not to be, he can easily visualise to come up with the best concept of a Uganda that works for everybody.
Judging from the excellent records in the UPDF, these signify that if Muhoozi moves into the mainstream government, his stronger adherence to the principles of operational excellence, good governance, and clean government will certainly attract even more ordinary citizens’ admiration. Muhoozi’s stronger quests to eliminate wastes, inefficiencies, as well as irregular, wasteful and fruitless expenditures in government will certainly influence the successful implementation of several government projects that had hitherto been hampered by corruption. Corruption is the biggest hindrance to service delivery. It is the cause of most people’s suffering in Africa. Given such dynamics, having a leader that believes in clean governance is certainly an asset for the country. In a country where corruption has defeated most leaders, Muhoozi’s stringent adoption of clean government principles will attract the attention of more ordinary citizens. And that will be disastrous if NUP continues playing the current Bobi Wine’s “hide and seek games”. Instead of frequenting Washington for sanctions, NUP must consider engaging the NRM to form an alliance and the government of national unity as part of the new post-election strategy.
The purpose of coming to government is to serve the people. And if NUP is patriotic enough, it can easily do that by forming an alliance with NRM. Through such initiatives, NUP can be able to influence policy direction in the way that it feels is better for the country. When it was taking long for South Africa’s Democratic Alliance to win South African votes and capture power, they did not hesitate to strike an alliance with the ANC to form the government of national unity (GNU). Even if some people raised issues that the ANC and Democratic Alliance subscribe to different political ideologies, they did not heed. Instead, DA recognized that it was through such incompatibilities that the DA would be able to mitigate ANC’s weaknesses while the ANC also did the same for DA’s weaknesses. Through such alliances, they believed that they could be able to create and improve their strengths and capabilities to deliver the best for South Africans. Leaving alone the South African case, just ODM’s late Raila Odinga here, in Uganda’s neighbourhood, swallowed his pride and opted to work with Ruto’s UDA. From such a patriotic approach, NUP can be able to get what they want even without holding the NRM government at ransom with sanctions from Washington. It’s from such initiatives that the opposition will decipher that the notion that sanctions are instrumental instruments for achieving the desired political change is not only a fallacy, but a double fallacy. It’s also from such an approach that NUP will recognize that in politics, it’s important to always leave all the doors and windows open because your enemies of today can easily become your friends and allies of tomorrow, and vice versa.
Citation: Okanga, B. (2026). Uganda’s Post-Election Era, Muhoozi and The Fallacy of Political Weaponization of Sanctions. London: Cloud Analytika.
Further readings
Akullu, C. (2025). 10 NUP supporters remanded in Lira after arrest during Bobi Wine campaign trail. Kampala: Daily Monitor. https://www.monitor.co.ug/uganda/news/national/10-nup-supporters-remanded-in-lira-after-arrest-during-bobi-wine-campaign-trail-5250254
Boatman, A. (2025). Organizational Capabilities: Definition, Examples, and Building Process. AIHR – Academy to Innovate. https://www.aihr.com/blog/organizational-capabilities/
Broda, E., & Strömbäck, J. (2024). Misinformation, disinformation, and fake news: Lessons from an interdisciplinary, systematic literature review. Annals of the International Communication Association, 48(2), 139–166. https://doi.org/10.1080/23808985.2024.2323736
Colomina, C., Sánchez, M. H., & Youngs, R. (2021). The impact of disinformation on democratic processes and human rights in the world. Brussels: European Union. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/STUD/2021/653635/EXPO_STU(2021)653635_EN.pdf
Duffy, P. (2025). Organisation capability & public administration: From reform and subjectivity to objective evaluation. HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, 16(2), 128–154. https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/hjobpa/v16y2025i2p128-154n1010.html#download
Katsinde, T. J. (2022). Effects of sanctions on Zimbabwe (2000–2020). International Journal of Research and Innovation in Social Science (IJRISS), VI(VII). https://rsisinternational.org/journals/ijriss/Digital-Library/volume-6-issue-7/253-259.pdf
Lawal, S. (2024). Remembering the Rwandan genocide 30 years on – how did it happen? Qatar: Al Jazeera. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/7/30-years-on-what-led-to-the-rwandan-genocide
Nambi, H. (2025). New power struggle erupts within NUP as Ssenyonyi and Rubongoya clash over LOP seat. Kampala: The Explorer, January 6, 2025. https://explorer.co.ug/new-power-struggle-erupts-within-nup-as-ssenyonyi-and-rubongoya-clash-over-lop-seat/
Nambi, H. (2026). NUP in chaos: Rubongoya and Ssenyonyi’s battle puts party’s future at risk. Kampala: The Explorer, January 26, 2026. https://explorer.co.ug/nup-in-chaos-rubongoya-and-ssenyonyis-battle-puts-partys-future-at-risk/
Okanga, B. (2025). Optimising e-government technologies to leverage the effectiveness of e-democracy in the 21st century. Archives of Humanities & Social Sciences Research. https://www.wecmelive.com/open-access/optimising-egovernment-technologies-to-leverage-the-effectiveness-of-edemocracy-in-the-21st-century.pdf
Omara, G. (2025). Kawempe rally: Police accuse NUP supporters of attacking officers. Kampala: Chimpreports, November 24, 2025. https://chimpreports.com/kawempe-rally-police-accuse-nup-supporters-of-attacking-officers/
Woodward, B. (2021). Republicans saw Colin Powell as their presidential savior in 1996. He couldn’t see himself that way. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/history/2021/10/18/president-run-colin-powell-1996/
Zhangazha, T. (2014). Tsvangirai’s generation has failed us. NewsDay, January 14, 2014. https://www.zimbabwesituation.com/news/zimsit_tsvangirais-generation-has-failed-us/
Zirimenya, S. (2026). How NUP lost Buganda and NRM took it back. Kampala: The Explorer, January 23, 2026. https://explorer.co.ug/how-nup-lost-the-capital-and-nrm-took-it-back/
